The Invasion of Ukraine

[Woodchopper]

I would guess that they are recreational motorboat sized things (e.g. think about the prizes won by the darts players from Wolverhampton on Bullseye )

Those can easily be launched from a naval vessel or large yacht with the cranes that are installed for the purpose of launching small boats.

Yes, or one could be towed behind a smaller yacht or motorboat without cranes. Here’s some instructions: https://www.boatingmag.com/how-to/towing-a-dinghy/

[EACLucifer]

After vetoing food aid to significant chunks of Syria and of course destroying the irrigation system for some of the most fertile land in the world, the Russians have now pulled out of the grain deal. We should offer them a new one - touch a grain ship, and the Black Sea Fleet will be sunk. Otherwise it only might be sunk.

[EACLucifer]

Girkin's in a bit of a pickle

[Martin Y]

Girkin's in a bit of a pickle

ISWYDT but I don't know what the story is.

Ah, found it on Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-07-21/

[EACLucifer]

Girkin's in a bit of a pickle

ISWYDT but I don't know what the story is.

Ah, found it on Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-07-21/

Absolutely ridiculous that you have to get half way in before it even begins to acknowledge that he's not just a Kremlin critic or nationalist but a mass murdering war criminal.

[jimbob]

Girkin's in a bit of a pickle

ISWYDT but I don't know what the story is.

Ah, found it on Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-07-21/

Absolutely ridiculous that you have to get half way in before it even begins to acknowledge that he's not just a Kremlin critic or nationalist but a mass murdering war criminal.

Yup, it's ironic that Putin's purgees are actually getting guilty people but who's crimes were committed on behalf of Putin and with his approval.

[EACLucifer]

ISWYDT but I don't know what the story is.

Ah, found it on Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-07-21/

Absolutely ridiculous that you have to get half way in before it even begins to acknowledge that he's not just a Kremlin critic or nationalist but a mass murdering war criminal.

Yup, it's ironic that Putin's purgees are actually getting guilty people but who's crimes were committed on behalf of Putin and with his approval.

Gubarev, too, a neo-nazi war criminal piece of sh.t.

[IvanV]

Yup, it's ironic that Putin's purgees are actually getting guilty people but who's crimes were committed on behalf of Putin and with his approval.

When Litvinenko was murdered, I asked a youngish (20s) Russian, who was someone-in-the-office's girlfriend, what she thought.

She said that, while on the one hand, you shouldn't go around murdering people like that, on the other hand she had no sympathy for the individual as he was ex-FSB, and they were all criminals.

[EACLucifer]

Odesa's been hit repeatedly since Russia pulled from the Grain Deal. Enough wheat to feed a quarter of a million people for a year was reportedly burned, along with over a hundred tonnes of peas, other produce and infrastructure. In addition the centre of Odesa, a world heritage site, has also been targetted. A missile last night caused severe damage to the orthodox Cathedral of the Transfiguration.

[jdc]

Odesa's been hit repeatedly since Russia pulled from the Grain Deal. Enough wheat to feed a quarter of a million people for a year was reportedly burned, along with over a hundred tonnes of peas, other produce and infrastructure. In addition the centre of Odesa, a world heritage site, has also been targetted. A missile last night caused severe damage to the orthodox Cathedral of the Transfiguration.

There's a claim here about use of Storm Shadow in Crimea being linked to their attacks on Odesa: https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1683149841541615618

19 July strike on the Staryi Krym ammo depot was the first Storm Shadow use against a target in Crimea.
22 July strike on the Oktyabrskoye air base was also Storm Shadow.
The UK allowed their use against Crimea after russia hit Odesa.

And I was promised more of this is to come.

[Woodchopper]

Odesa's been hit repeatedly since Russia pulled from the Grain Deal. Enough wheat to feed a quarter of a million people for a year was reportedly burned, along with over a hundred tonnes of peas, other produce and infrastructure. In addition the centre of Odesa, a world heritage site, has also been targetted. A missile last night caused severe damage to the orthodox Cathedral of the Transfiguration.

There's a claim here about use of Storm Shadow in Crimea being linked to their attacks on Odesa: https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1683149841541615618

19 July strike on the Staryi Krym ammo depot was the first Storm Shadow use against a target in Crimea.
22 July strike on the Oktyabrskoye air base was also Storm Shadow.
The UK allowed their use against Crimea after russia hit Odesa.

And I was promised more of this is to come.

The author of that tweet is unreliable. Not the worst bullshitter but IMHO he sometimes writes what he wants to be true.

[EACLucifer]

The river's the Danube. The Russian missile strikes Ukrainian soil, but the sailors watching are Romanian.

Russia will have taken a lot of care hitting this close to Romania that they didn't actually hit Romania, so we can assume they used one of their more accurate weapons, and that the target hit was the intended target. It was infrastructure for the export of grain.

We cannot continue to appease a fascist regime as they continue to use hunger as a weapon. The use of hunger as a weapon is something that ought to have been consigned to the history books, yet Assadists in Syria, Houthis in Yemen and Azerbaijan with the blockade of the Lachin Corridor are all doing so, and so is Russia. In this case they aren't aiming for one target to destroy it, they want to cause chaos, to force people to become refugees as they believe that destabilises Europe, or to extract concessions to refrain from doing so.

Storm Shadow missiles are too slow to the Russian launching complexes in occupied Crimea. ATACMS isn't, and could hit them before they displaced, yet America is refusing to supply them - it is cowardice of the lowest order.

[EACLucifer]

Another ammo depot strike in Dzhankoi, and I'm putting it here because it's directly related to the atrocities against Odesa - the target included the P-800 missile, the very fast, very hard to intercept and very expensive dual purpose ship-to-ship and ship-to-shore missile used for some of those strikes.

I'd also add that a strike a couple of days ago destroyed hardened ammo shelters, suggesting Storm Shadow use, though I'm not sure I buy Theiner's narrative about its use being a response to the Odesa attacks as the UK has been extremely clear that Crimea is Ukrainian soil when it comes to weapons use.

This is still not as effective as immediate counter-battery fire against the launching complexes. That won't stop P-800s, just push them back to Krasnodar, but it would stop Iskander and S-300 launches, and knock out the launchers currently operating from occupied Crimea.

[Woodchopper]

Back to ammo. Report that Germany only has 20 000 155mm shells left. That would amount to a few days usage by Ukraine.

But is planning on spending 20 billion Euros on developing new production. Between now and 2031.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschl ... 0e8d28b8c9

[EACLucifer]

I don't think it's a coincidence that Putin pulling out of the grain deal and attacking food export infrastructure in Ukraine right up to the Romanian border comes just after the immensely underwhelming NATO Vilnius conference. He perceived division and presumed weakness, and must be disabused of that notion.

[Woodchopper]

The river's the Danube. The Russian missile strikes Ukrainian soil, but the sailors watching are Romanian.

Russia will have taken a lot of care hitting this close to Romania that they didn't actually hit Romania, so we can assume they used one of their more accurate weapons, and that the target hit was the intended target. It was infrastructure for the export of grain.

The strike there is important because Ukrainie has been able to increase its food exports via freighters on the Danube. Hitting the port infrastructure there may have a larger effect than the strikes on Odessa.

[Woodchopper]

Ha! Seymour Hersh in his self published blog quotes a U.S. ‘official’ who uses a Russian expression translated directly into English.
https://twitter.com/badbaltictakes/stat ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[Woodchopper]

“These amendments are written for a big war and general mobilisation. And the smell of this big war can already be scented,” Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the Duma’s defence committee, said this week as the Russian parliament rushed to adopt a new law. The legislation enabling the Kremlin to send hundreds of thousands more men into combat reveals a sad truth: that far from seeking an off-ramp from his disastrous war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is preparing for an even bigger war.

[…]

the Kremlin, which believes that it can afford a long war. The Russian economy is forecast to record modest growth this year, mostly thanks to military factories working around the clock. Critical components such as microchips needed for the defence industry are arriving from China and other sources.

[…]

Despite sanctions, the Kremlin’s war chest is still overflowing with cash, thanks to windfall energy profits last year and also to the adaptability of Russian commodities exporters, who have found new customers and who settle payments mostly in yuan.

[…]

Putin is banking on the fact that the Russian manpower that can potentially be mobilised is three to four times bigger than Ukraine’s, and the only pressing task is to be able to tap into that resource at will: to mobilise many more men, arm them, train them and send them to fight. This is precisely the purpose of the new law, which should help the Kremlin to avoid another official mobilisation.

From now on, the government can quietly send draft notices to as many men as it deems necessary. The upper age limit for performing mandatory service will be increased from 27 to 30, and could be raised again in future. Once an electronic draft notice is issued, Russia’s borders will be immediately closed to its recipient in order to prevent a massive exodus of military-age men like the one Russia witnessed last autumn. The punishments for refusing to serve have also been ramped up. These moves, combined with massive state investment in expanding arms production, should help Putin to build a bigger and better equipped army.

A parallel tactic is the strangulation of Ukraine’s economy. Knowing that the Ukrainian budget is on life support provided by its western allies, the Kremlin wants to deny Kyiv all sources of revenue. Moscow has therefore not only pulled out of the grain deal that had enabled Ukrainian agricultural exports via the Black Sea, it has also launched massive air strikes against Ukrainian ports to destroy any possibility of reviving the agreement. The same logic underpins Russia’s air strikes against civilian infrastructure: they are aimed at making Ukrainian cities uninhabitable and preventing reconstruction efforts.

[…]

Putin has made plenty of fatal mistakes. But as long as he is in charge, Moscow will dedicate its still vast resources to achieving his obsession with destroying and subordinating Ukraine. As western leaders think about policies to support Ukraine into the third year of this ugly war, any long-term strategy must take this reality into account.

https://www.ft.com/content/861a8955-924 ... a13403e191

ETA That said, it’s far easier to send hundreds of thousands of barely trained recruits off to battle than it is to build hundreds of modern tanks or other equipment. If Russia wants a long term war it may end up with infantry being used against high tech NATO equipment. Though China could make a big difference.

[Woodchopper]

The river's the Danube. The Russian missile strikes Ukrainian soil, but the sailors watching are Romanian.

Russia will have taken a lot of care hitting this close to Romania that they didn't actually hit Romania, so we can assume they used one of their more accurate weapons, and that the target hit was the intended target. It was infrastructure for the export of grain.

The strike there is important because Ukrainie has been able to increase its food exports via freighters on the Danube. Hitting the port infrastructure there may have a larger effect than the strikes on Odessa.

Suggestion that merchant ships are hugging the NATO shore of the Black Sea.
https://twitter.com/auonsson/status/168 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

They’d be able to make it almost to the Ukrainian ports on the Danube. It would be very serious if Russia were to attack a ship in the territorial waters of Turkey, Bulgaria or Romania. Obviously the weak link is the infrastructure in Ukraine, both the ports and land links to them.

[Woodchopper]

Just caught up with this Russian anti-invasion music video.
https://youtu.be/3JKkd_WTAZg

[Woodchopper]

The Biden administration has hitherto claimed it could “walk and chew gum” at the same time: that is, help push back Russia’s onslaught while deterring China. Even as it has rallied European allies to help Ukraine defend itself, the administration has been weaving a variety of mini-alliances in the Indo-Pacific to constrain China. Mr Blinken and Mr Austin have been criss-crossing the Pacific this week to strengthen the geopolitical “latticework”. In Brisbane on July 29th they are expected to announce a further tightening of the military alliance with Australia, including the upgrading of military bases in the country, more deployments of American forces, deeper defence-industrial ties and greater military co-operation with other countries in the region.

Typically military supplies for Ukraine have been donated from American stocks—this week it announced its 43rd PDA for Ukraine, worth $400m and bringing the total to $24bn—whereas Taiwan has bought its arms under the lengthier Foreign Military Sales system. The Pentagon says the Taiwan package will not affect supplies for Ukraine. Yet Ukraine and Taiwan are now competing for American donations and, in some cases, the same weapons, too. The backlog of Taiwanese orders, which stands at more than $14bn, includes contracts for the Javelin missile, used to stop tanks, and the Stinger, used to bring down aircraft. Large quantities of both have been supplied to Ukraine.

In contrast with the PDAs for Ukraine, Congress has not appropriated funds needed to replenish weapons being given to Taiwan. In the short term the Pentagon can probably re-allocate funds internally, say congressional staffers. But for the new Taiwan policy to be sustainable, Congress will have to appropriate money in the next fiscal year. That, in turn, will depend on the tortuous budgeting process in a divided Congress, especially the House, where “America First” admirers of Donald Trump, who are sceptical if not hostile towards Ukraine, hold greater sway.

https://www.economist.com/united-states ... to-ukraine

[TimW]

...
ETA That said, it’s far easier to send hundreds of thousands of barely trained recruits off to battle than it is to build hundreds of modern tanks or other equipment.
...

Looking at the population pyramid for Russia there's already a big shortage of 20-30 year olds, presumably a knock-on effect of WW2. I can't help think that killing loads more of them will cause problems for the future, as the glut of 40+ers get older.

[Imrael]

The same graph for Ukraine is even more pronounced - to the extent that I'm wondering if something is up with the data, or some outside event affected it. Russian aggression is too recent to affect those cohorts.

[jimbob]

The same graph for Ukraine is even more pronounced - to the extent that I'm wondering if something is up with the data, or some outside event affected it. Russian aggression is too recent to affect those cohorts.

Ukraine and Poland suffered a greater proportion of deaths in WWII than any other countries.

[Grumble]

The same graph for Ukraine is even more pronounced - to the extent that I'm wondering if something is up with the data, or some outside event affected it. Russian aggression is too recent to affect those cohorts.

Ukraine and Poland suffered a greater proportion of deaths in WWII than any other countries.

Also holodomor before WW2