Re: Indecision 2024
Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2024 8:41 am
TRUMP GUILTY OF 8 COUNTS OF CONTEMPT: DA meets burden as to 2 of first 3; and all of next 6. So imposes 8 penalties of $1k each.
Very notably soft-spoken, low-key undramatic about it. No tongue-wagging at all. no addressing of Trump.
He has entered a written order.
The GOP have pulled the rug from under Biden's bipartisan anti-cancer "moonshot" funding plan.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/p ... -poll.htmlThe surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.
The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.
The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November.
[...]
The findings reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Mr. Biden’s ability to deliver major improvements to American life. A majority of voters still desire the return to normalcy promised by Mr. Biden in the last campaign, but voters in battleground states remain particularly anxious, unsettled and itching for change. Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.
Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters — just 13 percent — believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.
The sense that Mr. Biden would do little to improve the nation’s fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency. The Times/Siena polls found that the three groups wanted fundamental changes to American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believed that Mr. Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The polls suggest that Mr. Trump’s strength among young and nonwhite voters has at least temporarily upended the electoral map, with Mr. Trump surging to a significant lead in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — relatively diverse Sun Belt states where Black and Hispanic voters propelled Mr. Biden to signature victories in the 2020 election.
Mr. Biden nonetheless remains within striking distance. He has maintained most of his support among older and white voters, who are much less likely to demand fundamental changes to the system and far likelier to say that democracy is the most important issue for their vote. As a result, Mr. Biden is more competitive in the three relatively white Northern swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
[...]
Mr. Biden’s losses are concentrated among moderate and conservative Democratic-leaning voters, who nonetheless think that the system needs major changes or to be torn down altogether. Mr. Trump wins just 2 percent of Mr. Biden’s “very liberal” 2020 voters who think the system at least needs major changes, compared with 16 percent of those who are moderate or conservative.
One exception is Israel’s war in Gaza, an issue on which most of Mr. Biden’s challenge appears to come from his left. Around 13 percent of the voters who say they voted for Mr. Biden last time, but do not plan to do so again, said that his foreign policy or the war in Gaza was the most important issue to their vote. Just 17 percent of those voters reported sympathizing with Israel over the Palestinians.
[...]
Mr. Trump’s trial in Manhattan, on charges that he falsified business records related to a hush-money payment to cover up an affair with the adult film star Stormy Daniels, was already underway when the polls began in late April. However, the survey offered little indication that the trial had damaged the former president’s political fortunes, at least so far. Just 29 percent of voters in battleground states said that they were paying “a lot” of attention to Mr. Trump’s legal woes, and 35 percent thought that the trial was likely to end in a conviction.
This is a unique election though. Voters already know exactly what they’ll be getting. A convention isn’t going to introduce the candidate. It won’t change peoples’ minds.
Less than an hour between the twoStranger Mouse wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 3:33 pmGiuliani has been taunting the authorities about them not being able to find him to serve him.
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I did see someone saying that is such a Giuliani thing to doGrumble wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 3:59 pmLess than an hour between the twoStranger Mouse wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 3:33 pmGiuliani has been taunting the authorities about them not being able to find him to serve him.
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The only more Giuliani thing it could be is him turning up to an Arizona police station that shares a name with his birthday party venue.jimbob wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 7:52 pmI did see someone saying that is such a Giuliani thing to doGrumble wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 3:59 pmLess than an hour between the twoStranger Mouse wrote: ↑Sat May 18, 2024 3:33 pmGiuliani has been taunting the authorities about them not being able to find him to serve him.
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Thanks for that YouTube link. I spend far too much of my time following this stuff but that’s a really good refresherIvanV wrote: ↑Sat May 25, 2024 4:36 pmA youtube video (30mins) on how Judge Aileen Cannon in Florida is being very helpful to Trump in delaying the documents case to the never never. Put simply, Trump has filed numerous motions to dismiss, etc, on dubious grounds, and Cannon instead of just dismissing them all as nonsense, is taking them one by one, allowing all sorts of exchanges over them, taking her time, and then slowly dismissing them. So that, by the designated trial date of 21 May, the trial had to be postponed indefinitely as there are still several of these motions. Moreover, Trump can still appeal various of those motions to the higher court and then to the supreme court. The judge also tried to write one of Trump's more outrageous legal arguments into the assumptions of the trial that will be an instruction to the jury, and get him automatically acquitted. That's the "declassification by theft" argument, that anything Trump takes is automatically his personal or private record and so declassified at moment of theft. Of course, that won't stand up, but the prosecutor has to fight to get it taken away.
Coincidentally, yesterday's Economist has an article on how it is true that the legal process is distorted by political interference, just as Trump claims. But of course such distortion comes (at least as much) from conservative legal officers. The case they cite has the Governor of Texas pardoning a murderer, claiming that the murderer was wrongly found guilty because of political interference by a legal officers in a locality with a liberal jurisdiction - there are actually some of these in Texas. There's an article in the Guardian on the case if you are interested. The Governor is not wrong that facts similar to those frequently result in murderers being found not guilty in places with a conservative jurisdiction. But if you only exchange who got shot and who shot them, and the same facts would undeniably lead to a guilty verdict in any jurisdiction.
Under the law, Michael Cohen is considered an accomplice because he participated in some of the crimes alleged here in this trial.
While the jury can consider his testimony, there is a specific instruction at play.
The judge tells them that “you may not convict a defendant solely upon his testimony" unless they find it is corroborated by other evidence.