Hamas attack on Israel

[EACLucifer]

I’m in no way saying Netanyahu had a deliberate hand in causing this, but he’s certainly going to try to exploit it for gain and suppress the political opposition to him in Israel. Call an emergency and try to give himself dictactorial powers or similar.

We've got a unity government, though the status of Lapid is not yet clear, all non-wartime legislation suspended (so good riddance to the f.cking judicial overhaul), and something like three in five Israelis polled think Netanyahu should resign immediately.

[EACLucifer]

So in addition to the dickheads who went out to protest in favour of what Hamas did* and went to mock and taunt vigils for the dead, we've now got Khaled Mashal calling for global jihad, attacks and Israel and Jews this friday.

Khaled Mashal, former Hamas leader, is extremely wealthy and has spent the last decade living in Qatar.


*Many, I'm sure, are detatched enough from reality to have whitewashed what they did in their own heads, I'd add

[bjn]

I’m in no way saying Netanyahu had a deliberate hand in causing this, but he’s certainly going to try to exploit it for gain and suppress the political opposition to him in Israel. Call an emergency and try to give himself dictactorial powers or similar.

We've got a unity government, though the status of Lapid is not yet clear, all non-wartime legislation suspended (so good riddance to the f.cking judicial overhaul), and something like three in five Israelis polled think Netanyahu should resign immediately.

Good. Given he’s a crook who is worried about losing immunity, I’m doubtful he’d jump.

[Woodchopper]

Right now, I don't see any Arab state joining in a war against Israel, it just doesn't make any sense for any of those governments. Lebanon's a basket case, Assad's too busy killing off his own people to take further risks, and most of the others are sufficiently concerned about Iran there's been moves towards normalisation with Israel. But that's something that could change. The IDF is still very capable, but it is not what it was in the 60s and 70s.

And Hamas have made it very clear that the consequences if Israel were to be defeated would be a second Holocaust.

The aim isn't to win a war against Israel.

That is exactly what Hamas and Iran want. They've shown us that. They've told us it, too - a few years back when people were bleating and whining because Israel shot down militants who tried to get through the border fencing during the "Great Return March", Sinwar was talking about tearing the hearts from the bodies of the Jews. Hamas wrote a rejection of peace settlement into their constitution, Hamas wrote a call for the massacre of Jews into their constitution. The IRGC, meanwhile, is lousy with the Shia equivalent of end-timers, and one of the things they think is required for the return of the hidden imam is the killing of Jews - taken from the same hadith as the quote in Hamas's charter.

Treating them as a movement with extreme rhetoric but ultimately pragmatic was a terrible, terrible mistake.

Of course, you just need to read Hamas' founding documents to understand their intentions.

But Hamas can't win a war against Israel. They know that. Hamas tanks aren't going to drive down the streets of Tel Aviv. To start with Hamas doesn't have any tanks, or jet aircraft etc. Hamas faced a choice between giving up or being contained indefinitely.

But what Hamas can do is wear down the Israeli army and try to provoke a wider conflict. The latter is a roll of the dice. Get enough external parties involved and maybe Hamas has a chance of winning.

[Woodchopper]

At the present time, as Lucifer says, I don't see this igniting a wider conflict. Most of the Arab states seem to care far less about the Palestinians than they used to. Israel is on the cusp of having a treaty with Saudi Arabia, who are the most influential and powerful of the Arab states. And Iran has enough else to worry about for now. But down the track, things can be different.

I agree. In my limited experience Arabs in the Gulf states tend now to view the Palestinians as an embarrassment. That doesn't mean though that Hamas isn't trying to get them involved by escalating the conflict.

[Woodchopper]

This still seems to be a trap set by Hamas. Israeli troops will face high losses and there will be very serious civilian casualties from fighting and indirect effects like lack of food, clean water and medical care.

It remains to be seen whether Hezbollah will attack Israel or whether Israel will attack Iran.

The only thing that can ever compensate for the deaths of thousands of innocent women and children is the deaths of thousands more innocent women and children. Everyone knows that.

The intended purpose of Israel's draconian retribution policy, as they describe it, is deterrence rather than compensation.

Clearly there is some deterrent effect. When you know what extreme retribution will follow from your actions, you think a bit more carefully about it. But evidently it is only partially effective. It is also inconsistent with international norms such as the Geneva Convention, being forms of collective punishment.

I agree, mass starvation of a couple of million people would be a crime against humanity.

I think that deterrence of this kind makes the situation worse rather than better. But since Israel seems to gain more every time there is an uptick in conflict, quite a lot of people there don't seem to care about that. But I think they should, because in the longer run eventually a much larger conflict could result which would be a disaster.

You talk about it being a trap set by Hamas. But mostly over the last 75 years, the way every conflict leads to the ratchet being tightened, and Israel taking more, it could seen as a trap set by Israel. Continuing draconian actions leads to build up of resentment. But the trap is that if the Palestinians respond to that by boiling over again, the outcome will be worse for them. The containment will be even tighter, and Israel will continue to expand into the West Bank.

I don't think that Israel has continuously expanded. The high point of Israeli territorial control was in 1981. The year later it withdrew from the Sinai as part of the peace agreement with Egypt. Under the Oslo accords it withdrew from some areas in the West Bank, and in 2005 it withdrew from Gaza. The territory controlled by Israel now is much less than it was a little over 40 years ago.

[IvanV]

I don't think that Israel has continuously expanded. The high point of Israeli territorial control was in 1981. The year later it withdrew from the Sinai as part of the peace agreement with Egypt. Under the Oslo accords it withdrew from some areas in the West Bank, and in 2005 it withdrew from Gaza. The territory controlled by Israel now is much less than it was a little over 40 years ago.

So I'm talking about its practical expansion in terms of its colonial settlement, rather than its military control of bits of land occupied by others.

Clearly after 1981 Israel controlled all of Sinai, Gaza and the West Bank, but as an army of occupation, not a colonial settler at that point. I don't think it ever sought to settle Sinai, there were just a few mainly military camps, and so handed that back. It would also have given Gaza back if Egypt would have taken it, but they wouldn't.

Its colonial expansion into the West Bank was at its fastest in the 90s, the period immediately after Oslo, which split the West Bank into 3 levels of control, giving the Palestinians strong control over only a modest archipelago within it. Israel expanded settlements, build roads criss-crossing between them that Palestinians are excluded from, and more recently built the separation barrier which in several places heads deep into the WB. In practice Israel patrols beyond the separation barrier, and there are intermittent checkpoints controlling the movement of Palestinians across the WB. It closed settlements in Gaza, but those only catered for a few thousand people, and the subsequent settlement growth in the WB provided for many more.

More recently settlement growth has slowed. The separation barrier tends to define an area that is annexed in practical terms, which reduces the incentive to go and live in places beyond it.

[IvanV]

Meanwhile, Israel has turned off the water, fuel and electricity to Gaza, and says they won't be turned back on until the hostages are freed.

I don't think Israel will get the hostages back that easily.

I didn't realise this, as there hasn't been much attention, but there is a statement from Hamas, kind of explaining their actions. It ends with the words, "This is the ultimate jihad, the outcome of which can only be victory or martyrdom." If you want to read the full statement, you can get a link to it from this this news/analysis article. It's on a partisan website maybe I shouldn't link to directly.

As that article I linked suggests, it does seem plausible that this action is related to the Saudi/Israel talks, which would be seen as a major betrayal by the Palestinians, and hence an attempt to move public opinion among Arab nations to disrupt those developments.

[Woodchopper]

I don't think that Israel has continuously expanded. The high point of Israeli territorial control was in 1981. The year later it withdrew from the Sinai as part of the peace agreement with Egypt. Under the Oslo accords it withdrew from some areas in the West Bank, and in 2005 it withdrew from Gaza. The territory controlled by Israel now is much less than it was a little over 40 years ago.

So I'm talking about its practical expansion in terms of its colonial settlement, rather than its military control of bits of land occupied by others.

Clearly after 1981 Israel controlled all of Sinai, Gaza and the West Bank, but as an army of occupation, not a colonial settler at that point. I don't think it ever sought to settle Sinai, there were just a few mainly military camps, and so handed that back. It would also have given Gaza back if Egypt would have taken it, but they wouldn't.

Its colonial expansion into the West Bank was at its fastest in the 90s, the period immediately after Oslo, which split the West Bank into 3 levels of control, giving the Palestinians strong control over only a modest archipelago within it. Israel expanded settlements, build roads criss-crossing between them that Palestinians are excluded from, and more recently built the separation barrier which in several places heads deep into the WB. In practice Israel patrols beyond the separation barrier, and there are intermittent checkpoints controlling the movement of Palestinians across the WB. It closed settlements in Gaza, but those only catered for a few thousand people, and the subsequent settlement growth in the WB provided for many more.

More recently settlement growth has slowed. The separation barrier tends to define an area that is annexed in practical terms, which reduces the incentive to go and live in places beyond it.

I'm pretty sure that there were Israeli settlements in the Sinai and Gaza, and these were removed as Israel pulled out. I agree that there has been an expansion into the West Bank (though perhaps a handful of settlements were removed when the Oslo accords were implemented). I assume that far fewer people left Gaza than took over areas of the West bank.

[IvanV]

I'm pretty sure that there were Israeli settlements in the Sinai and Gaza, and these were removed as Israel pulled out. I agree that there has been an expansion into the West Bank (though perhaps a handful of settlements were removed when the Oslo accords were implemented). I assume that far fewer people left Gaza than took over areas of the West bank.

You are right, there was a bit more in the way of settlement in Sinai than I realised. I was mainly aware of Yamit, which was just outside Gaza, and got bulldozed when they left. It amounted to 3,000 people at the time. This is what I was calling mainly a military camp, as I think a substantial amount of that was military personnel living there. But there was also a handful of settlements along the Gulf of Aqaba, which were vacated without destruction, and survive as Egyptian tourist resorts, including what is now Sharm el Sheikh, originally called Ophir. They were all small at the time. At some time all of this was planned to be much larger, but in practice didn't get very far in the 15 years. I think at some fairly early point they must have begun to think they couldn't realistically hold on to all this.

The settlements in Gaza were mainly agricultural, including greenhouses, which is why they occupied 10% of Gaza without having very many people. But there were also some factories. Unbelievably, they physically destroyed those agricultural structures and factories, in their entirety, and all the houses, when they left. How vindictive is that. What kind of message does that send out?

[EACLucifer]

Unbelievably, they physically destroyed those agricultural structures and factories, in their entirety, and all the houses, when they left. How vindictive is that.

This claim is not remotely true. Debunking here, with contemporary sources quoted.


About a third of the greenhouses were removed by departing settlers but not as a mindlessly vindictive act but to re-erect them within Israel.

A group of American Jewish philanthropists raised fourteen million dollars to allow the greenhouses to continue in use under Palestinian ownership. Unfortunately, the PA did not assign remotely enough security to the evacuated settlements, and the greenhouses were looted for parts. In some cases, the officers assigned by the PA to prevent looting took part in it instead.

[IvanV]

Unbelievably, they physically destroyed those agricultural structures and factories, in their entirety, and all the houses, when they left. How vindictive is that.

This claim is not remotely true. Debunking here, with contemporary sources quoted.


About a third of the greenhouses were removed by departing settlers but not as a mindlessly vindictive act but to re-erect them within Israel.

A group of American Jewish philanthropists raised fourteen million dollars to allow the greenhouses to continue in use under Palestinian ownership. Unfortunately, the PA did not assign remotely enough security to the evacuated settlements, and the greenhouses were looted for parts. In some cases, the officers assigned by the PA to prevent looting took part in it instead.

Thank you for that. I was fooled by fake news, back in the days before we even used the term. I wonder where I picked it up from.

[EACLucifer]

Unbelievably, they physically destroyed those agricultural structures and factories, in their entirety, and all the houses, when they left. How vindictive is that.

This claim is not remotely true. Debunking here, with contemporary sources quoted.


About a third of the greenhouses were removed by departing settlers but not as a mindlessly vindictive act but to re-erect them within Israel.

A group of American Jewish philanthropists raised fourteen million dollars to allow the greenhouses to continue in use under Palestinian ownership. Unfortunately, the PA did not assign remotely enough security to the evacuated settlements, and the greenhouses were looted for parts. In some cases, the officers assigned by the PA to prevent looting took part in it instead.

Thank you for that. I was fooled by fake news, back in the days before we even used the term. I wonder where I picked it up from.

I don't know, but it's done the rounds plenty of times, hence there already being an article debunking it.

[WFJ]

Unbelievably, they physically destroyed those agricultural structures and factories, in their entirety, and all the houses, when they left. How vindictive is that.

This claim is not remotely true. Debunking here, with contemporary sources quoted.


About a third of the greenhouses were removed by departing settlers but not as a mindlessly vindictive act but to re-erect them within Israel.

A group of American Jewish philanthropists raised fourteen million dollars to allow the greenhouses to continue in use under Palestinian ownership. Unfortunately, the PA did not assign remotely enough security to the evacuated settlements, and the greenhouses were looted for parts. In some cases, the officers assigned by the PA to prevent looting took part in it instead.

Thank you for that. I was fooled by fake news, back in the days before we even used the term. I wonder where I picked it up from.

I don't know much about this specific claim, but just as an FYI for calibrating your fake news meter, Camera is about as reputable a source as the Iranian news agency.

[EACLucifer]

Jewish schools closing in a lot of parts of the world tomorrow due to Hamas's call for a day of rage

[Woodchopper]

The Israeli military has told the UN that everyone living north of Wadi Gaza should relocate to southern Gaza in the next 24 hours, says a UN spokesperson.

The UN says this amounts to approximately 1.1 million people - about half the population of the entire Gaza Strip. The affected area includes densely populated Gaza City.

The alert was given just before midnight, Gaza and Jerusalem time (23:00 GMT).

"The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences," the UN said in a statement.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-m ... t-67096916

The UN assessment seems accurate. Israel is sprinting into the trap set by Hamas, and the Palestinian population will face the immediate consequences.

[EACLucifer]

The Israeli military has told the UN that everyone living north of Wadi Gaza should relocate to southern Gaza in the next 24 hours, says a UN spokesperson.

The UN says this amounts to approximately 1.1 million people - about half the population of the entire Gaza Strip. The affected area includes densely populated Gaza City.

The alert was given just before midnight, Gaza and Jerusalem time (23:00 GMT).

"The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences," the UN said in a statement.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-m ... t-67096916

The UN assessment seems accurate. Israel is sprinting into the trap set by Hamas, and the Palestinian population will face the immediate consequences.

Several days, per IDF spokesman, not 24h.

The problem right now is there is nothing Israel can do that does not have tremendous downsides for someone, and that includes taking no or very limited action. A Hamas win sets up all sorts of horrible future scenarios, but Hamas will do everything they can to hide behind the civilian population, indeed they are telling people not to evacuate and according to some claims forcing them not to, though I cannot verify those claims.

[Woodchopper]

The Israeli military has told the UN that everyone living north of Wadi Gaza should relocate to southern Gaza in the next 24 hours, says a UN spokesperson.

The UN says this amounts to approximately 1.1 million people - about half the population of the entire Gaza Strip. The affected area includes densely populated Gaza City.

The alert was given just before midnight, Gaza and Jerusalem time (23:00 GMT).

"The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences," the UN said in a statement.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-m ... t-67096916

The UN assessment seems accurate. Israel is sprinting into the trap set by Hamas, and the Palestinian population will face the immediate consequences.

Several days, per IDF spokesman, not 24h.

I doubt that a few days would make much difference. To avoid serious consequences there would need to be provision of at least clean water, sewerage and waste disposal, food and preparation facilities, and basic medical services. Possible to set all that up, but it seems very difficult to do so for a million people by early next week. Without that infrastructure there is a major risk of disease and malnutrition.

The problem right now is there is nothing Israel can do that does not have tremendous downsides for someone, and that includes taking no or very limited action. A Hamas win sets up all sorts of horrible future scenarios, but Hamas will do everything they can to hide behind the civilian population, indeed they are telling people not to evacuate and according to some claims forcing them not to, though I cannot verify those claims.

It might be possible to take action without risking harming millions. But we'll never know, because other options aren't even being looked at. Israel doesn't have to act immediately.

[EACLucifer]

Israel doesn't have to act immediately

One of the reasons I'm trying to avoid being too specific about details is I don't have all the necessary information.

You don't either

Hamas has a very significant number of Israelis hostage, including a number of children. We do not know all the details as to pressures to act and timescales and so on.

[EACLucifer]

Hezbollah might be getting involved after all.

A blast tore through the separation fence along Israel's northern border with Lebanon, the IDF confirmed on Friday.

Israeli artillery forces are firing at targets across the border. Lebanese media reported fire was ongoing between Israeli forces and Hezbollah terrorists.

[Woodchopper]

UN press release

Across the Gaza Strip, more than 2 million people are at risk as water runs out.

“It has become a matter of life and death. It is a must; fuel needs to be delivered now into Gaza to make water available for 2 million people,” said Philippe Lazzarini, UNRWA Commissioner-General.

No humanitarian supplies have been allowed into Gaza for a week now.

Clean water is running out in the Gaza Strip, after its water plant and public water networks stopped working. People are now forced to use dirty water from wells, increasing risks of waterborne diseases. Gaza has also been under an electricity blackout since 11 October, impacting the water supply.

At the UN base in the southern Gaza Strip - where UNRWA has moved its operations- drinking water is also running out. Thousands of people have sought refuge there after Israel issued a warning to residents demanding them to leave their homes in the northern parts of the Strip.

Only in the past 12 hours, hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced. The exodus continues as people move to the southern parts of the Gaza Strip. Nearly 1 million people have been displaced in one week alone.

“We need to truck fuel into Gaza now. Fuel is the only way for people to have safe drinking water. If not, people will start dying of severe dehydration, among them young children, the elderly and women. Water is now the last remaining lifeline. I appeal for the siege on humanitarian assistance to be lifted now,” added Lazzarini.

ENDs -

Notes to Editors

Three water desalination plants, previously producing 21 million liters of drinking water per day, have halted operations.
Drinking water supply from Israel was cut on 9 October, causing a severe shortage of drinking water for over 650,000 people.

https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official ... eople-gaza

[EACLucifer]

Worth noting that fuel's the main issue - Israel's supply of water to Gaza was only about 10% of usage.

[EACLucifer]

Hamas appear to have blocked the roads people were using to evacuate the northern part of the Gaza Strip. This comes after Ismail Haniyeh told people to stay and die in their homes from his luxury residence in Doha, Qatar.

[Woodchopper]

Aleppo’s international airport is closed after Israel attacked it overnight, according to Syrian state media. There was no immediate comment from Israel, but Joshua Zarka, a senior Foreign Ministry official, confirmed that Israel was seeking to preempt Iran from moving weapons to or via Syria.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/15 ... =url-share

Tens of airports in Syria though. So that’ll slow down Iranian supplies but it’s unlikely to stop them. If Israel wants to do that it’ll probably need to shoot down the aircraft.

An attack by Hezbollah would be an important fulfilment of Hamas’ objectives.

ETA link to Zarka’s confirmation: https://x.com/yzarka/status/17134033859 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[jimbob]

Simply provoking a land invasion with lots of street fighting in one of the most densely populated areas of the world, and the consequent humanitarian disaster seems a sufficient motive on it own, with anything else being a bonus.

Also, it means that there is pressure on Iran's rivals to distance themselves and possibly align against Israel.

An attempt to give the IDF their urban Vietnam.