Scrutable

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:00 am

But there is a history of leaders assuming that they could get away with an invasion. Putin evidently thought that Russian troops would march into Kyiv, Hussein believed that the rest of the world would not save Kuwait, and Galtieri assumed that Britain wouldn't fight in 1982.

Clearly anyone who invades another country must think they can get away with it. Anyone who failed, or had a pyrrhic victory, will have been surprised.

As already mentioned, Maduro did a deal with Biden, and has reneged immediately and completely without evident consequence. That might well make him think America isn't in the mood for punishing him and he can push the boundaries of his misbehaviour. I bet he is very happy about pulling that one off. If the US continues in its apparent indifference to Maduro's cheating on this, that could prove an expensive mistake. And unfortunately Lula, now returned to power in Brazil, has been a Maduro apologist. We can only hope he will change his mind if they start invading their neighbours.

The venezuelan “navy” is a frigate and four landing craft

The air force has shiny jet fighters that likely dont work and a handful of small transports and helicopters.

Some of the army is needed vs home dissent

Armed forces promotion will be based on loyalty not competence.

An overland invasion effectively declares war on Brasil.

China has investments in Guyana


Conclusion: its sabre rattling, the significance is the scale of the delusion: an attenpted invasion of Guyana ends with Maduro hanging from a Caracas lampost.

IvanV wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:46 am

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:00 am

But there is a history of leaders assuming that they could get away with an invasion. Putin evidently thought that Russian troops would march into Kyiv, Hussein believed that the rest of the world would not save Kuwait, and Galtieri assumed that Britain wouldn't fight in 1982.

Clearly anyone who invades another country must think they can get away with it. Anyone who failed, or had a pyrrhic victory, will have been surprised.

As already mentioned, Maduro did a deal with Biden, and has reneged immediately and completely without evident consequence. That might well make him think America isn't in the mood for punishing him and he can push the boundaries of his misbehaviour. I bet he is very happy about pulling that one off. If the US continues in its apparent indifference to Maduro's cheating on this, that could prove an expensive mistake. And unfortunately Lula, now returned to power in Brazil, has been a Maduro apologist. We can only hope he will change his mind if they start invading their neighbours.

There's a whole history of invasions intended to wring a different negotiating concession out of the invaded country or their allies as a condition for withdrawal, etc..

The definition of "success" and "getting away with it" may be quite complex, and not related to where troops end up.

There's also the possibility Venezuela might try and start extracting oil from under Guyana's waters based on their new and ridiculous territorial claims without doing anything on land, something that would steal revenue from Guyana to fund Maduro and his crooks.

There's a number of locations where oil has been found under the eastern end of the Stabroek block, marked on this map from the FT.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 06, 2023 3:05 pm

There's also the possibility Venezuela might try and start extracting oil from under Guyana's waters based on their new and ridiculous territorial claims without doing anything on land, something that would steal revenue from Guyana to fund Maduro and his crooks.

There's a number of locations where oil has been found under the eastern end of the Stabroek block, marked on this map from the FT.

Thank you for this, it potentially explains a lot.

Venezuela's oil income has fallen substantially in recent times, because of its own incompetence. It effectively nationalised all the oil, and then couldn't maintain the fields very well, so production is down to about 1/3 what it might have been. Because of currency restrictions, foreign oil companies relied on the govt to be paid, and large debts built up, which were never paid - likewise airlines. Then there were expropriations of assets. So most foreign companies have become very unwilling to try working there, as they strongly suspect they will be cheated again. I think part of the recent deal with Biden was directed towards trying to find a way to reopen deals with competent foreign oil companies, under reasonable reciprocal arrangements, but I'm not sure about that, trust has to be rebuilt.

So before that deal, PdV - the national oil company - wouldn't have been in much of a condition to exploit new fields, unless perhaps they were especially easy ones. Though grabbing some existing production facilities would help it in the short term. And new facilities might last a bit better. But maybe it now sees new possibilities with the help of foreigners, to exploit this field. Doubtless some foreigners are capable of holding their noses if they are certain enough of being paid.

Guyana's oil curse is offshore. The exploratory onshore drilling fizzled out.

Maybe China has the navy to defend offshore rigs in stolen territory. Venezuela sure as hell hasn't.

In response to Maduro's sabre rattling, US SOUTHCOM will be rattling their much large and more impressive sabre with flights over Guyana, in conjunction with the Guyana Defence Force.

This is important, as Guyana has a couple of batallions of infantry and an artillery company and as far as I'm aware no air defence, while Venezuela has multiple divisions with tanks, SPGs, IFVs, a navy - albeit one so incompetent they sank their own patrol boat failing to hijack a small cruise liner back in 2020 - and an airforce with Sukhois and F-16s. If the rhetoric from Caracas is for more than domestic consumption, they absolutely can be prevented from taking action by the use of force, or better yet deterred, but it will take the involvement of nations other than Guyana.

The Brazilians are mobilising forces along the Venezuelan border. So Lula is not as compliant as I feared. There is some observation that such is the terrain the only practical way into Essequibo is via Brazil.

But since the interest lies in offshore oil, so I think Venezuela would be happy to occupy the coastal strip. I wonder who might act to stop that if there was any sign of it.

Venezuela cant extract its own oil let alone do it offshore in disputed waters.

noggins wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:23 pm

Venezuela cant extract its own oil let alone do it offshore in disputed waters.

It can extract some of its own oil, if rather a long way short of all of it. There is a large amount of active extraction in Guyanese waters, and Venezuela can potentially use force to take over those facilities. Given that the current extractor is ExxonMobil, or largely them, it's not going to get cooperation, so would have to kick them out by force. But it succeeded in kicking the majors out of Venezuela and taking over their facilities, and running them until it could no longer maintain them. So a question is whether the US or other countries would take military action to defend them.

Or it can just sail into those waters and in effect loot them, though it will probably need someone with expertise and a well-plugged nose to help it. The recent deal with the US potentially paved the way for foreign expertise to become available to it again, unless the US makes clear that deal is dead now. The Chinese have well-plugged noses and don't seem to mind turning up in disputed waters and doing stuff, if people are too timid to stop them. Though Guyanese defenders might be bolder in standing up to them so far from the South China Sea. Everyone who has dealt with the Venezuelans has got their fingers burnt, even the Russians and Chinese have found their enforcement structures insufficient. But off-shore oil is perhaps a bit easier to avoid payment risk, you extract it into tankers and sail off, which works so long as you can deter them from taking physical control.

If the USAF is making flights over Guyana already to deter a land invasion, it's not too hard to imagine a few USN ships offshore to deter a hostile takeover of oil platforms, if it came to that.

The UK to deploy a warship to the area: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-67806227

Not a very big one though.

Appropriate, since it's not a very big war.

I've already seen Stop the War types praising Venezuela for standing up to British colonialism and American aggression.

I just posted that I wonder what the people of Guyana want and it's gone a bit quiet.