Scrutable

IvanV wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 10:32 am

jimbob wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:50 am

Surely even the nasty party supporters don't think it's a good look to send people to Rwanda even if they had worked for the British armed forces?

I guess they might be fine with deporting victims of modern slavery.

I wonder what proportion of voters (both in general, and among people who have usually voted Tory in recent times) think that "the nasty party" is a good look, in contrast to Mrs May's previous thought that it was a bad look?

I suspect in practice, even among those who have a taste for a certain nastiness, there is a spectrum of how nasty is desirable until it crosses an individual's own red lines for too nasty. If the Tories continue to upgrade their nasty look, to try and recover the Reform/Reclaim/Galloway votes, how many will they lose at the other end?

Exactly.

They are also onto a losing game trying to Reclaim* some nasty voters from Reform inc as it can always outflank them and has no risk of having to give feasible solutions as they are not going to get tested.



*SWIDT

jimbob wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 10:47 am

IvanV wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 10:32 am

jimbob wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:50 am

Surely even the nasty party supporters don't think it's a good look to send people to Rwanda even if they had worked for the British armed forces?

I guess they might be fine with deporting victims of modern slavery.

I wonder what proportion of voters (both in general, and among people who have usually voted Tory in recent times) think that "the nasty party" is a good look, in contrast to Mrs May's previous thought that it was a bad look?

I suspect in practice, even among those who have a taste for a certain nastiness, there is a spectrum of how nasty is desirable until it crosses an individual's own red lines for too nasty. If the Tories continue to upgrade their nasty look, to try and recover the Reform/Reclaim/Galloway votes, how many will they lose at the other end?

Exactly.

They are also onto a losing game trying to Reclaim* some nasty voters from Reform inc as it can always outflank them and has no risk of having to give feasible solutions as they are not going to get tested.



*SWIDT

It also has no record of saying the opposite or trying to implement the opposite.

jimbob wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 10:47 am

They are also onto a losing game trying to Reclaim* some nasty voters from Reform inc as it can always outflank them and has no risk of having to give feasible solutions as they are not going to get tested.

Brexit got tested.

Far right parties get what they want when they draw the major parties rightward, and their policies end up being tested.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:58 am

monkey wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:46 pm

The last time I looked at a poll, which was a while back. Labour weren't ahead because they are winning over Tories, but because Tories were losing support to don't know and UKIP/Brexit/Reform (mostly don't know). Looking briefly now, it seems that hasn't changed much.

Yes and no. Labour have polling in the mid-40s since the Truss debacle and that would normally be enough to get a majority, albeit not a landslide.

The problem for the Tories is that they’ve been polling in the mid-20s since Truss, and recent polls put them at about 20% (19 in today’s YouGov). As you write, this is due to the non-Labour vote being divided among the Tories, Reform, Greens, nationalists and the Liberals.

Tory support of 20-25% is into wipeout territory which if it were to be reflected in an election would result in the Tories losing hundreds of seats and Labour having a massive majority. If Sunak were to get 20% then he’d be looking at a party with something around 50 MPs.

So IMHO Labour would probably get a majority with what it’s polling. But a landslide would be due to lack of support for the Tories among the rest of the electorate.

I just looked at seven pollsters' most recent polls, from 12th March to the YouGov one published today. They generally show how the 2019 vote breaks down into today's voting figures. I recorded these and took an average.

Less than half of 2019 Conservative voters are today planning to vote for them again at the next election: on average, 47% of them. 13% are lost to Labour, 17% to Reform, 13% to Don't Know and 5% who won't vote.

For Labour, 80% of their 2019 vote plan to vote for them again, but they're capturing that 13% of 2019 Tory voters and 26% of 2019 LD voters. Polling on 2019 non-voters is less available, but what is there suggests that maybe a third of them will vote Labour this time. Labour lose 13% of their 2019 voters to the Cons (2%), Lib Dems (3%), Green (4%) and Reform (4%). Don't know are 6%, Won't vote 2%.

Lib Dem 2019 voters are roughly as unconfident in their party as Tory voters - only 52% of them currently plan to vote the same way again.

It's worth noting that the YouGov polling is very much an outlier in terms of where the 2019 vote goes - they have much higher proportions of the Tory vote going to Don't Know and Reform than the other polling companies. They also show lower retention figures for both Labour and the Lib Dems.

Well, Owen Jones is off down the road. Which is a shame.

That's a major blow to Labour's hopes.

It’s not a long way from Stockport to Rochdale

Not good 'joke' deleted

based around trying to work on a 'not a long way to tip a racist' into a reply.

Work on it and make it better...

It seems the next election is going to be fought over who loves a flag the most.

monkey wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 22, 2024 2:53 pm

It seems the next election is going to be fought over who loves a flag the most.

It's so depressingly jingositic.

I hate flags. I've always hated flags. Everything they represent and do to a nation's psyche is dumb.

I especially hate the Black Country flag. That one can f.ck right off.

On second thoughts, let’s not go to England, 'tis a silly place.

wilsontown wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:16 pm

Well, Owen Jones is off down the road. Which is a shame.

Well it's on brand for him.

Let's take my marginal constituency as an example.

2019:

Conservative Robert Largan 24,844
Labour Ruth George 24,254
Liberal Democrats David Lomax 2,750
Brexit Party Alan Graves 1,177
Green Robert Hodgetts-Haley 1,148

I'm not sure that whatever cause Jones claims to support* would be better served by splitting the anti Tory vote and letting the Tory back in.


*As opposed to what he actually wants, which is the luxury of impotent opposition and an unelectable Labour party with Starmer fatally weakened.

monkey wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 22, 2024 2:53 pm

It seems the next election is going to be fought over who loves a flag the most.

It's funny how easily the people who complain about snowflakes can be offended

jimbob wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 22, 2024 3:34 pm

wilsontown wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:16 pm

Well, Owen Jones is off down the road. Which is a shame.

Well it's on brand for him.

Let's take my marginal constituency as an example.

2019:

Conservative Robert Largan 24,844
Labour Ruth George 24,254
Liberal Democrats David Lomax 2,750
Brexit Party Alan Graves 1,177
Green Robert Hodgetts-Haley 1,148

I'm not sure that whatever cause Jones claims to support* would be better served by splitting the anti Tory vote and letting the Tory back in.


*As opposed to what he actually wants, which is the luxury of impotent opposition and an unelectable Labour party with Starmer fatally weakened.

Even if it was found out that Starmer was that woman who put a cat in a wheelie bin Labour would still win the next election.

monkey wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 22, 2024 3:41 pm

jimbob wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 22, 2024 3:34 pm

wilsontown wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:16 pm

Well, Owen Jones is off down the road. Which is a shame.

Well it's on brand for him.

Let's take my marginal constituency as an example.

2019:

Conservative Robert Largan 24,844
Labour Ruth George 24,254
Liberal Democrats David Lomax 2,750
Brexit Party Alan Graves 1,177
Green Robert Hodgetts-Haley 1,148

I'm not sure that whatever cause Jones claims to support* would be better served by splitting the anti Tory vote and letting the Tory back in.


*As opposed to what he actually wants, which is the luxury of impotent opposition and an unelectable Labour party with Starmer fatally weakened.

Even if it was found out that Starmer was that woman who put a cat in a wheelie bin Labour would still win the next election.

Because Sunak's allies would probably release stories and videos of Sunak getting a butler to put multiple cats in wheelie bins and some would probably be doing it to help Sunak's popularity.

monkey wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 11:59 am

Brexit got tested.

Oh no it wasn't, it wasn't a proper Brexit, is was deliberately sabotaged by eilte establishment remoaners.

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:29 am

Grumble wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 17, 2024 10:42 pm

Is there any reason to think Penny Mordaunt is any more competent than Sunak?

Yeah - she can hold a heavy sword for a long time...

... and she tells it as she finds it (from the BBC)

The Leader of the House told BBC Politics South that she was "focussed on doing her current job" and called the speculation "bollocks".

jimbob wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:12 pm

Plus the influence of being on the Privvy Council.

She already is on the Privy Council. I was surprised how many people are.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 22, 2024 10:52 pm

jimbob wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:12 pm

Plus the influence of being on the Privvy Council.

She already is on the Privy Council. I was surprised how many people are.

Members are appointed for life, but only current ministers participate in the Council’s day-to-day activities and they are the ones who are accountable to Parliament.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 22, 2024 10:52 pm

jimbob wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:12 pm

Plus the influence of being on the Privvy Council.

She already is on the Privy Council. I was surprised how many people are.

Isn't Mad Nad also on it, hence the reason she can keep "Rt Hon" on her Twitter/X profile?

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:32 pm

That's a major blow to Labour's hopes.

lol! (I'm assuming that was a joke!)

Tristan wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 25, 2024 3:45 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:32 pm

That's a major blow to Labour's hopes.

lol! (I'm assuming that was a joke!)

Either that or LPM's suddenly lost the plot.

jimbob wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:22 pm

Tristan wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 25, 2024 3:45 pm

lpm wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:32 pm

That's a major blow to Labour's hopes.

lol! (I'm assuming that was a joke!)

Either that or LPM's suddenly lost the plot.

I've been away a while. She might have changed in that time!

Why would I be joking?

Owen Jones is the best known Labour personality in the country, with a name recognition of 80%+ and a +40 point approval rating. When Joe Public hears Labour they instantly think Owen Jones. He is talked about in pubs, at the office, during family gatherings.

He not just yet another narcissistic journalist with a good twitter outrage game, oh no.

How many Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds are there these days?