Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 4:26 pm
The thing is that Delta became significantly less severe as a consequence of mass vaccination. As far as I remember from about 10% of cases needing hospital treatment down to about 2%.
I assume that when people talk about Omi being less severe they mean in comparison to the early phases of the other variants. I haven’t seen any evidence that Omi would be less virulent in a population without any antibodies (if such a population even exists now).
That's ratios. It's misleading and is making people go wrong.
If Delta puts 2% of cases in hospital, Omicron will put 1%, say. Far less. That's guaranteed. It's simply the outcome of the mix.
We saw it with Delta. A huge number of kids in the case numbers, the hospitalization ratio falls. A huge number of vaccinated breakthroughs and the ratio falls.
But that's just aggregation across a population and is irrelevant to real world outcomes. It's individuals and their personal risk that matter. I'm never sure what people are talking about with "milder" because they seem confused by mix vs individuals.
I'm not managing to explain it very well though. What we need to discover is individual impacts.
Take David. He is 80 years old. Two Pfizers. Likes to spend time with grandchildren.
He didn't catch Delta. Either luck or the good vaccine protection. He's now quite likely to catch Omicron, because it'll be so widespread and his Pfizers are less protective against infection.
He catches it. Has David's risk of hospitalization changed vs if he'd caught Delta?
- Higher risk, because two Pfizers are still very good protection against hospitalization, but not quite as good as before
- Lower risk, because Omicron is milder underlying virulence
It's impossible to determine individual risk from aggregated national statistics because the vax vs unvax ratio changes in such a dramatic way for Omicron. Look at any aggregated statistic and you'll see a far lower hospitalization ratio - tricking you into telling David he's got a lower risk of going into hospital now he's caught Covid. This might well be false.