Scrutable

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 am

The BBC report that

"The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"

And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 am

The BBC report that

"The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"

And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:14 pm

The second page of that shows weekly deaths and they don't seem to be going up yet.

This seems to be the best place to see daily cases.

They've gone from several hundred a day to a few thousand per day in Gauteng Province (est. population 15.8 million). Don't know why there were 18.6k on the 22nd of November.

For UK real-world data to assess transmissibility or outcomes like hospitalisations need a minimum:

• several hundred cases

• +2 weeks from the positive specimen, time for cases to spread to contacts and/or people to get ill (if they’re going to)

• +4 weeks for deaths

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:07 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:20 am

The BBC report that

"The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted,"

And still doesn't say if these are vaccinated or unvaccinated, but the odds are that they aren't.

It's also contradicted by the figures Woodchopper found indicating increasing numbers in the hospital in Guateng.

Severity of disease: It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta. Preliminary data suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalization in South Africa, but this may be due to increasing overall numbers of people becoming infected, rather than a result of specific infection with Omicron. There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants. Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks. All variants of COVID-19, including the Delta variant that is dominant worldwide, can cause severe disease or death, in particular for the most vulnerable people, and thus prevention is always key.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:09 pm

the soundings we’re getting from South Africa seem to be saying that it doesn’t look severe, and the people who are going to hospital are the unvaccinated, rather than the vaccinated

The South African doctor I previously quoted flagged these cases because they were presenting unusually, not because they were particularly bad, because with such a low degree of vaccination coverage there I suppose extreme tiredness is a mild symptom on their scale.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:15 pm

Hospital admissions in Gauteng province have gone from 135 in week 45 to 418 in week 47 (22-28 November).

Seems to be consistent with Omicron causing severe illness. Though of course we don’t yet know the ratio.

A third confirmed case has been identified in the UK, following confirmation of two other cases on Saturday — one in Essex, the other in Nottingham. Dozens more are being treated as suspected cases, people familiar with the matter have told the Financial Times.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:51 pm

... investigators looking into one of the two cases announced on Saturday were searching for potential contacts in Brentwood, Essex, as far back as nine days ago, raising questions over how long the new variant has been in the UK.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:06 am

Six cases in Scotland.

https://www.gov.scot/news/omicron-variant/

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:55 am

Portugal has detected 13 cases of the new Omicron coronavirus variant - all related to players and staff members of this bunch of morons.

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:17 am

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:06 am

Six cases in Scotland.

https://www.gov.scot/news/omicron-variant/

Sounds like these 6 infections were domestic - not travellers from SA.

Carl Heneghan


Update on Omicron: ‘It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible; It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease’

https://t.co/I3zE4cetof?amp=1

jimbob wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:30 pm

https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status ... 0113839113

Carl Heneghan


Update on Omicron: ‘It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible; It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease’

https://t.co/I3zE4cetof?amp=1

Heneghan is still off the deep end.


Um, I think there's plenty of evidence that it's outcompeting Delta in several locations.

I'll grant the second point.