Scrutable

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 2:54 am Ukraine has sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet
https://mobile.twitter.com/ralee85/stat ... 7903235074
https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514387 ... N4GjmFpZPQ

Possibly the largest warship to be lost in combat since the end of the Second World War.

Official Finnish government report on the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine (in English): https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bit ... sAllowed=y

It’s comprehensive, and covers the need for increased military forces, joining NATO, societal resilience and civil defence, and economic impacts.

Thread on Finland joining NATO (which is a big deal): https://twitter.com/henrivanhanen/statu ... hs8gzqGRhQ

Finland clearly sees the long term security environment as having fundamentally changed and become much more threatening.

Finland had a low dependence upon Russian energy supplies anyway and is currently working on severing them completely.

Swedish prime minister’s policy is to join NATO in June (along with Finland). Link in Swedish: https://sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/magdal ... ut-om-nato

This is a very big deal as Sweden had been neutral since the end of the Napoleonic wars and neutrality has been hitherto a fundamental aspect of how it views itself.*




*Yes, the EU has a security element but no one rates it as a military alliance.

Millennie Al wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 1:43 am

TopBadger wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 7:36 pm I expect that more Javelins have already been ordered to replenish.

If this is to be believed, https://militarycognizance.com/2022/04/ ... sian-tank/ production is limited to 6,500 per year.

And if this is accurate: https://armourersbench.com/2022/03/13/j ... n-ukraine/ the kill rate is 280 vehicles for 300 fired.

280/300 is extraordinary isn’t it?

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:12 am

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 2:54 am Ukraine has sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet
https://mobile.twitter.com/ralee85/stat ... 7903235074
https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1514387 ... N4GjmFpZPQ

Possibly the largest warship to be lost in combat since the end of the Second World War.

Time to destroy the Black Sea Fleet

Heh, Russian warship go f.ck yourself.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:42 am Heh, Russian warship go f.ck yourself.

They even got the correct warship, seen here on a new postage stamp, pennant number and all.



I'll add, though, that we shouldn't be too flippant about this. Moskva had a crew of around five hundred, and it is very likely many died. The ship sank in stormy weather, complicating rescue. The sinking of course comes as a relief to the people of Ukraine who endured bombardment by the Black Sea Fleet, but it is also a senseless waste of human life, and though the blame lies firmly with Putin, the Russian political elite and propagandists, and Russian military commanders, it is still an utter waste of humanity.

That's a very cool stamp.

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 5:24 am Swedish prime minister’s policy is to join NATO in June (along with Finland). Link in Swedish: https://sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/magdal ... ut-om-nato

This is a very big deal as Sweden had been neutral since the end of the Napoleonic wars and neutrality has been hitherto a fundamental aspect of how it views itself.*




*Yes, the EU has a security element but no one rates it as a military alliance.

In meme form

Bird on a Fire wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:42 am Heh, Russian warship go f.ck yourself.

Well the Russians haven't mentioned any missile attack, just an explosion, so if one is dim enough to take them at their word, it would be seem that is what they're saying happened.

I don't believe there's anyone saying the Moskva was sunk. That seems to be a twitter over-excitement.

Evidence suggests there was a fire, crew evacuated, Russia is trying to save it and get it back to port. Quite possibly it'll never reemerge from a dry dock and end up being scrapped, but it's not at the bottom of the Black Sea.

lpm wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 10:24 am I don't believe there's anyone saying the Moskva was sunk. That seems to be a twitter over-excitement.

Evidence suggests there was a fire, crew evacuated, Russia is trying to save it and get it back to port. Quite possibly it'll never reemerge from a dry dock and end up being scrapped, but it's not at the bottom of the Black Sea.

Pro-Russian telegram channels are reporting a loss, and I've seen some references to a possible capsize.

To put things into context, an ammunition fire aboard a warship like that means its own anti-shipping armament exploding onboard. Moskva carried sixteen P-500 Bazalt or P-1000 Vulkan missiles. Each has an explosive warhead weighing a tonne. Evacuating the ship - if that's something they actually did and not Russian propaganda softening the blow - also means an end to damage control and fire suppression work.

Before the loss was confirmed by Russian media, OSINT types - specifically the radio intercept nerd subtype - were reporting the likely loss. They even documented SOS signals in morse code.

We'll probably get some more clarity sooner or later. Obviously if Moskva turns up afloat and damaged, that will be confirmation in one direction. In the other direction, there was reportedly a TB2 in the area, which could have filmed the attack. The landing ship that was hit burned for days leaving a smoke trail visible from space - absence of such a trail might imply that Moskva has been sunk.

Russia statement just out.

Claims afloat and "flames no longer visible".

Not sure why they'd lie, other than muscle memory.

This trolling of a Russian embassy with a projector is the funniest thing you’ll see all day,

https://twitter.com/mr_andrew_fox/statu ... wX6vGCCZKw

lpm wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 10:41 am Russia statement just out.

Claims afloat and "flames no longer visible".

Not sure why they'd lie, other than muscle memory.

It doesn't seem to me like they ever decide to lie.

Maybe they're just putting out a positive sounding message, and no more news will follow. Perhaps they'll feel they can't talk about it anymore until Sue Gray's report comes out.

TimW wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:15 am

lpm wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 10:41 am Russia statement just out.

Claims afloat and "flames no longer visible".

Not sure why they'd lie, other than muscle memory.

It doesn't seem to me like they ever decide to lie.

Maybe they're just putting out a positive sounding message, and no more news will follow. Perhaps they'll feel they can't talk about it anymore until Sue Gray's report comes out.

As always, there's no harm in waiting for confirmation one way or another. It's exceptionally unlikely a ship that was abandoned while on fire will be in service again any time soon, even if she is still afloat and even if she can be towed to port.

With the Dardanelles closed to belligerent warships until further notice, the Black Sea Fleet has suffered a significant loss in capability.

EACLucifer wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:48 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:42 am Heh, Russian warship go f.ck yourself.

They even got the correct warship, seen here on a new postage stamp, pennant number and all.



I'll add, though, that we shouldn't be too flippant about this. Moskva had a crew of around five hundred, and it is very likely many died. The ship sank in stormy weather, complicating rescue. The sinking of course comes as a relief to the people of Ukraine who endured bombardment by the Black Sea Fleet, but it is also a senseless waste of human life, and though the blame lies firmly with Putin, the Russian political elite and propagandists, and Russian military commanders, it is still an utter waste of humanity.

Updated

Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

Considering what the Russians have done to Ukraine I think the only way Ukraine could be deemed to be escalating this conflict would be for them to nuke Russia. They're the defenders. Hitting any Russian assets with any non-WMD weapon seems fair game to me.

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

Considering what the Russians have done to Ukraine I think the only way Ukraine could be deemed to be escalating this conflict would be for them to nuke Russia. They're the defenders. Hitting any Russian assets with any non-WMD weapon seems fair game to me.

As I said, the Russian response hasn't been "now you've done it we're going to shell the civilian population even harder" but "no that wasn't Ukrainian missiles it exploded on its own".

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

Russia seem most unhappy about attacks hitting Russian territory, even though so far they have only hit legitimate military targets. Perhaps they missed the part where if they attack other countries, those countries are allowed to return fire.

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 5:24 am Swedish prime minister’s policy is to join NATO in June (along with Finland). Link in Swedish: https://sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/magdal ... ut-om-nato

This is a very big deal as Sweden had been neutral since the end of the Napoleonic wars and neutrality has been hitherto a fundamental aspect of how it views itself.*




*Yes, the EU has a security element but no one rates it as a military alliance.

Putin’s plan is working perfectly!

Stranger Mouse wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 5:03 pm
Putin’s plan is working perfectly!

I do wonder if secretly he thinks he's really dropped a bollock. Russia will exit this conflict in such a worse condition than it started it.

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 7:27 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 5:03 pm
Putin’s plan is working perfectly!

I do wonder if secretly he thinks he's really dropped a bollock. Russia will exit this conflict in such a worse condition than it started it.

Looks like more purges from Putin - rumours that the head of the Black Sea Fleet has been removed from command.

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

Considering what the Russians have done to Ukraine I think the only way Ukraine could be deemed to be escalating this conflict would be for them to nuke Russia. They're the defenders. Hitting any Russian assets with any non-WMD weapon seems fair game to me.

If the Russians think it is escalatory, then we are ratcheting up to nuclear conflict. The West (EU/NATO, whatever) needs to figure out how to de-escalate this conflict. There must be some way to get Russia back to the bargaining table. Putin is like a cornered rat, it is dangerous to push him too far.

What appears to be the verified Telegram account of TASS

Russian State Media wrote:Крейсер "Москва" затонул при буксировке в условиях шторма, сообщили в Минобороны РФ.

Google Translated wrote:The cruiser Moskva sank while being towed in a storm, the Russian Defense Ministry said.