Scrutable

lpm wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:14 am Ukraine keeps quiet about its attacks inside Russia. Obviously these are legitimate targets, but Ukraine clearly wants to present itself to the world as defenders of its own territory, not aggressors outside. Its important.

Given how twitchy some of their western partners are, it is a sensible policy.

Hitting fuel storage, ammo dumps and railway lines in Belgorod and Bryansk - places Russia is using to stage forces and supplies for the invasion - is completely legitimate so long as they target military targets or infrastructure used to support the invasion and use a proportionate amount of force to minimise risks to civilians compared to the military importance of the attacks.

It would be a high-risk thing to do but I can't help wondering, if there really is a spate of sabotage incidents in Russia, is it actually Ukrainians doing it or somebody else on their behalf? It would look really, really bad if anyone got caught which makes me doubt it but I guess it's not impossible.

Hard to distinguish sabotage from gross incompetence.

Easiest thing to steal is funds for safety/long term maintenance. Odds are you'll not be caught out. Today's train thing looks like a routine landslide due to nobody doing preventative works.

There's always the nagging feeling that it might just be confirmation bias and Russia is just a complete shambles where this kind of thing already happened every day when we weren't looking.

Martin Y wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 11:30 am There's always the nagging feeling that it might just be confirmation bias and Russia is just a complete shambles where this kind of thing already happened every day when we weren't looking.

It's deeply unlikely that a fuel facility and ammo dump* would violently explode in quick succession. Bryansk is easily within SRBM range of Ukraine. Not so sure about the railway - if nothing else railway sabotage has been a thing in Belarus, it can't be counted out in Russia, though it's a lot less likely.


*reportedly

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:00 pm

Martin Y wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 11:30 am There's always the nagging feeling that it might just be confirmation bias and Russia is just a complete shambles where this kind of thing already happened every day when we weren't looking.

It's deeply unlikely that a fuel facility and ammo dump* would violently explode in quick succession. Bryansk is easily within SRBM range of Ukraine. Not so sure about the railway - if nothing else railway sabotage has been a thing in Belarus, it can't be counted out in Russia, though it's a lot less likely.


*reportedly

Reports of a fire at the military airbase in Ussuriysk too

Don't think there's much doubt it's a missile strike in Bryansk

Don't click if video/audio of missile impacts is upsetting or traumatic to you.

The railway incident was several days ago, and looks a lot more like an accident than the explosions do.

Martin Y wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 11:30 am There's always the nagging feeling that it might just be confirmation bias and Russia is just a complete shambles where this kind of thing already happened every day when we weren't looking.

That is my gut feeling.

Based on the performance of their military, it shouldn't be a surprise.

jimbob wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:43 pm Reports of a fire at the military airbase in Ussuriysk too

That's more than 4,000 miles away from Ukraine, so they're not perhaps the prime suspects.

Martin Y wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:44 pm

jimbob wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:43 pm Reports of a fire at the military airbase in Ussuriysk too

That's more than 4,000 miles away from Ukraine, so they're not perhaps the prime suspects.

Indeed, but crap maintenance and trying to cut corners to meet demands of a war might be.

some conscription offices have been petrol bombed so several options

Now there's reports it was one of the famous TB2 "Bayraktar" drones, and that the drone was shot down on the return leg of the journey.

Martin Y wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 11:30 am There's always the nagging feeling that it might just be confirmation bias and Russia is just a complete shambles where this kind of thing already happened every day when we weren't looking.

That's certainly the impression I got from a lot of the videos on e.g. https://www.reddit.com/r/ANormalDayInRussia/ - a lot of chaos and violence. (Obviously those videos are selected to be funny and confirm stereotypes in the first place.)

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:18 pm Now there's reports it was one of the famous TB2 "Bayraktar" drones, and that the drone was shot down on the return leg of the journey.

Which attack?

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:18 pm Now there's reports it was one of the famous TB2 "Bayraktar" drones, and that the drone was shot down on the return leg of the journey.

OTOH: https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/15 ... 1264951300

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:18 pm Now there's reports it was one of the famous TB2 "Bayraktar" drones, and that the drone was shot down on the return leg of the journey.

I think they’re too valuable to be flown that far inside Russia.

A large fixed target would better suit a long range single use drone or a ballistic missile. As well as the US examples of the former (Switchblade or Phoenix Ghost) there’s this Polish example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WB_Electronics_Warmate

Or for that matter the Ukrainians are more than capable of making their own. For something like an oil depot they’ll just need basic GPS guidance. The drones are small enough not to be noticed.

I also assume that they could be launched by a Ukrainian located from inside Russia.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:39 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:18 pm Now there's reports it was one of the famous TB2 "Bayraktar" drones, and that the drone was shot down on the return leg of the journey.

I think they’re too valuable to be flown that far inside Russia.

A large fixed target would better suit a long range single use drone or a ballistic missile. As well as the US examples of the former (Switchblade or Phoenix Ghost) there’s this Polish example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WB_Electronics_Warmate

Or for that matter the Ukrainians are more than capable of making their own. For something like an oil depot they’ll just need basic GPS guidance. The drones are small enough not to be noticed.

I also assume that they could be launched by a Ukrainian located from inside Russia.

Lots of conflicting information

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/15 ... 1264951300

I could imagine some other rubbish getting confused, but otherwise it seems too silly to use something like that unless it was just in the site.

But then I'm not an FSB agent who signed a supposed assassination plot with "signature indistinct"

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:39 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:18 pm Now there's reports it was one of the famous TB2 "Bayraktar" drones, and that the drone was shot down on the return leg of the journey.

I think they’re too valuable to be flown that far inside Russia.

A large fixed target would better suit a long range single use drone or a ballistic missile. As well as the US examples of the former (Switchblade or Phoenix Ghost) there’s this Polish example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WB_Electronics_Warmate

Or for that matter the Ukrainians are more than capable of making their own. For something like an oil depot they’ll just need basic GPS guidance. The drones are small enough not to be noticed.

I also assume that they could be launched by a Ukrainian located from inside Russia.

And on the other hand...



I've got to admit the bits of TB2 in the photo could quite easily have just been placed. Based on the audio of the impact, I'd say ballistic missile.

Not sure Warmate or Switchblade 600 have the reach to get from Ukraine to Bryasnk, the Switchblade 300 certainly doesn't. The Tochka-U, on the other hand, can do it quite easily.

They don’t have the range from Ukraine. But they would make a very effective sabotage weapon if launched, say, 20km away by a team already inside Russia.

As for the Byraktar bits. Either it broke up in mid air or they didn’t show the actual crash site.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:51 pm They don’t have the range from Ukraine. But they would make a very effective sabotage weapon if launched, say, 20km away by a team already inside Russia.

As for the Byraktar bits. Either it broke up in mid air or they didn’t show the actual crash site.

It's a good reminder of how difficult it is trying to piece things together from the little scraps of evidence that make it onto the internet.

The link I posted shows that before the first explosion, there was something very loud in the sky, but I'm not familiar with what an incoming ballistic missile sounds like. Less likely to be a loitering munition, though, as those generally aren't very loud.

jimbob wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:49 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:39 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:18 pm Now there's reports it was one of the famous TB2 "Bayraktar" drones, and that the drone was shot down on the return leg of the journey.

I think they’re too valuable to be flown that far inside Russia.

A large fixed target would better suit a long range single use drone or a ballistic missile. As well as the US examples of the former (Switchblade or Phoenix Ghost) there’s this Polish example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WB_Electronics_Warmate

Or for that matter the Ukrainians are more than capable of making their own. For something like an oil depot they’ll just need basic GPS guidance. The drones are small enough not to be noticed.

I also assume that they could be launched by a Ukrainian located from inside Russia.

Lots of conflicting information

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/15 ... 1264951300

I could imagine some other rubbish getting confused, but otherwise it seems too silly to use something like that unless it was just in the site.

But then I'm not an FSB agent who signed a supposed assassination plot with "signature indistinct"

Or included several copies of The Sims 3, perhaps due to a fairly serious misunderstanding re: 3 Sim Cards.

The general opinion of FSB watchers such as Bellingcat is that the service is staffed by those who can be relied upon not to (deliberately) undermine Putin, with actual espionage and subversion talent having fallen by the wayside quite a while ago.

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:53 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:51 pm They don’t have the range from Ukraine. But they would make a very effective sabotage weapon if launched, say, 20km away by a team already inside Russia.

As for the Byraktar bits. Either it broke up in mid air or they didn’t show the actual crash site.

It's a good reminder of how difficult it is trying to piece things together from the little scraps of evidence that make it onto the internet.

The link I posted shows that before the first explosion, there was something very loud in the sky, but I'm not familiar with what an incoming ballistic missile sounds like. Less likely to be a loitering munition, though, as those generally aren't very loud.

Certainly. A ballistic missile was my first thought and is the simplest explanation. But it’s interesting to speculate on other means. If it was a drone strike why use a big expensive Bayraktar
TB2 when some much smaller and cheaper drones might do the job.

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 5:44 am

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:53 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:51 pm They don’t have the range from Ukraine. But they would make a very effective sabotage weapon if launched, say, 20km away by a team already inside Russia.

As for the Byraktar bits. Either it broke up in mid air or they didn’t show the actual crash site.

It's a good reminder of how difficult it is trying to piece things together from the little scraps of evidence that make it onto the internet.

The link I posted shows that before the first explosion, there was something very loud in the sky, but I'm not familiar with what an incoming ballistic missile sounds like. Less likely to be a loitering munition, though, as those generally aren't very loud.

Certainly. A ballistic missile was my first thought and is the simplest explanation. But it’s interesting to speculate on other means. If it was a drone strike why use a big expensive Bayraktar
TB2 when some much smaller and cheaper drones might do the job.

The argument for using a Bayraktar is the range, but Ukraine has other drones that can drop bombs too. There's footage of drone dropped bombs targetting a Russian fuel train much earlier in the war.

Speaking of trains, pictures of an alleged mine placed on a railway track have emerged.. It's actually a demolition charge - or rather, an inert practise demolition charge. The account that posted the thread thinks false flag unlikely because it couldn't do any harm, and speculates it could be a test as to how attentive railway workers are. I disagree with the former part of that assessment - a fake foiled attack is a pretty easy bit of propaganda, and I'm not sure to what extent we can assume nobody would be stupid enough to try propaganda where the explosives are labelled as inert, given the audio nicked from youtube and edited together weeks before the alleged incident video, the this corpse has already been autopsied before it was blown up video and the note signed with the words signature indistinct, along with several copies of The Sims and a bright green party wig claims.

Coming back to the Bryansk explosions/fires, I'm strongly leaning towards ballistic missile. The blasts are too big for the tiny little bombs carried by Bayraktars, and reportedly locals described a thunderclap sound, which could be referring to the sonic boom of a ballistic missile coming in faster than the speed of sound.

That said, Ukraine is currently trying to slow down Russian attempts to envelop their forces in the east. Knocking out oil and reportedly ammo in Bryansk, after previously knocking out oil facilities in Belgorod, has the potential to be a very significant part of that effort. It's not just fuel for fighting vehicles - every supply run needs fuel too, and the artillery-heavy, especially rocket artillery-heavy, type of warfare Russia is engaged in needs enormous amounts of supplies. Restricting the Russian supply of fuel - and consequently their supply of everything else - is something Ukraine is likely to consider worth using some of their finite stocks of SRBMs to attain, and though at this point I don't think it was a drone, it would be worth the risk of losing a Bayraktar, too.

Lot of discussion about various attempts to supply Ukraine with 152mm artillery ammunition. I have to wonder whether rather than just relying on old stocks, it is worth trying to get it into production in the west. Lathes sized for 155mm ammunition ought to be able to handle it, and while it might take a while to get production going, but we can't assume this will be over soon, and it's probably going to be easier to make 152mm than replace all of Ukraine's 152mm guns with 155mm.

203mm, as used in the 2S7 Pions, might be harder, as 8" ammunition has not been made in a long time in the west, and production equipment designed around producing 155mm probably can't be adapted.

People have highlighted the discrepancy between UK claims for Russian KIA (~15000) and Ukrainian claims (>20000), however it is worth noting that a Russian news agency briefly showed figures for Russian losses that matched the Ukrainian ones, then took it down claiming hacking, however, the personnel losses were not KIA, but MIA+KIA, so it could be there is no discrepancy between Ukrainian claims and British ones.

The figures given at the same time for vehicle and aircraft losses appear to have been taken from the Oryxspioenkop list, which isn't that bad an idea as their work is excellent, however, they do have a backlog, and represent a minimum, inevitably, they will be undercounting losses as not all losses are photographed.

Hmm.

It's all a bit McNamara.

War via quantification.

It's a basic fallacy. But at the same time it might be correct in this instance. Russia has a finite supply of non-conscript soldiers, and conscript soldiers are clearly inferior, which might not have been true in Vietnam.

The same applies to the death count of Ukraine soldiers, of course. They must be running low as well. Need to have a proper attrition model.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy