Scrutable

But he did say this election is about the future, not the past

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 10:35 am The last seven polls I've got in my tracker all show the Tories on more than 24%, but this is largely as a result of assumptions around what Don't Knows will do come election day.

Just in case people thought the polling wasn't showing any movement, since I posted this on Wednesday, we've had a further 13 polls, and only two of them show the Conservatives at or above 24%. The straight average is 21.8%. Labour's has dropped too, to 43.4%, but they can afford to lose more than the Tories can. Reform are averaging 14.3% in that time.

Next week's polling is going to be exquisite.

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:47 am Wow... main news at the moment is essentially that Sunak has no respect for veterans, and lies on national TV about Labour's Tax position.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot... I'm only hoping his next shot is to his own head.

He really has no idea how to do politics

JQH wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 6:05 pm

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:47 am Wow... main news at the moment is essentially that Sunak has no respect for veterans, and lies on national TV about Labour's Tax position.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot... I'm only hoping his next shot is to his own head.

He really has no idea how to do politics

He's not helping himself (and his advisors don't seem to be either), but to my eyes this is mostly about what happens when you lose the support of the press. Boris Johnson wasn't some political savant who knew how to lie with impunity and fend off scandal after scandal, he had the right wing press running cover for him (right up until they decided not to, anyway). Sunak doesn't have that, so he's not getting away with it.

This is mostly true, but D-Day was a genuinely massive event, tragic and heroic, and non-partisan. Not attending in full is just astounding.

ETA: non-partisan in the sense that it is so important politically that it transcends party lines.

monkey wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:19 pm

JQH wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 6:05 pm

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:47 am Wow... main news at the moment is essentially that Sunak has no respect for veterans, and lies on national TV about Labour's Tax position.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot... I'm only hoping his next shot is to his own head.

He really has no idea how to do politics

He's not helping himself (and his advisors don't seem to be either), but to my eyes this is mostly about what happens when you lose the support of the press. Boris Johnson wasn't some political savant who knew how to lie with impunity and fend off scandal after scandal, he had the right wing press running cover for him (right up until they decided not to, anyway). Sunak doesn't have that, so he's not getting away with it.

I think that Teflon politicians are Teflon because people don't pay attention and the stories disagree with the preconceptions people have about them. But when stuff starts to stick, they become velcro

jimbob wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:37 pm

monkey wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:19 pm

JQH wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 6:05 pm

He really has no idea how to do politics

He's not helping himself (and his advisors don't seem to be either), but to my eyes this is mostly about what happens when you lose the support of the press. Boris Johnson wasn't some political savant who knew how to lie with impunity and fend off scandal after scandal, he had the right wing press running cover for him (right up until they decided not to, anyway). Sunak doesn't have that, so he's not getting away with it.

I think that Teflon politicians are Teflon because people don't pay attention and the stories disagree with the preconceptions people have about them. But when stuff starts to stick, they become velcro

How do people get those preconceptions? How do they find out out about the stories that disagree with them?

The press only have what they're given by politicians to work with, and there is competition in the media, but just about everything goes through their filters before it gets to you.

monkey wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 9:15 pm

jimbob wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:37 pm

monkey wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:19 pm

He's not helping himself (and his advisors don't seem to be either), but to my eyes this is mostly about what happens when you lose the support of the press. Boris Johnson wasn't some political savant who knew how to lie with impunity and fend off scandal after scandal, he had the right wing press running cover for him (right up until they decided not to, anyway). Sunak doesn't have that, so he's not getting away with it.

I think that Teflon politicians are Teflon because people don't pay attention and the stories disagree with the preconceptions people have about them. But when stuff starts to stick, they become velcro

How do people get those preconceptions? How do they find out out about the stories that disagree with them?

The press only have what they're given by politicians to work with, and there is competition in the media, but just about everything goes through their filters before it gets to you.

Yes I was riffing on your point.

Eventually something is bad enough that it pierces the bubble, and everything else changes for them.

monkey wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:19 pm

JQH wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 6:05 pm

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:47 am Wow... main news at the moment is essentially that Sunak has no respect for veterans, and lies on national TV about Labour's Tax position.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot... I'm only hoping his next shot is to his own head.

He really has no idea how to do politics

He's not helping himself (and his advisors don't seem to be either), but to my eyes this is mostly about what happens when you lose the support of the press. Boris Johnson wasn't some political savant who knew how to lie with impunity and fend off scandal after scandal, he had the right wing press running cover for him (right up until they decided not to, anyway). Sunak doesn't have that, so he's not getting away with it.

Agree.

By the way I think this will go down like a lead balloon here. But.. as much as I like seeing the Tories fail, I really don’t care what he does for D-Day. I care what his plans are nhs, Ukraine,Palestine-Israel, immigration, austerity, inflation and cost of living etc. To me this is just in the same bucket as how the quality of Corbyn’s suit, Gordon brown mumbling that a bigot was a bigot, Julia Gillard falling over when being led away for safety by security etc - all stuff I wish the media would stop building up and pushing.

Bewildered wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 2:39 am

monkey wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:19 pm

JQH wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 6:05 pm

He really has no idea how to do politics

He's not helping himself (and his advisors don't seem to be either), but to my eyes this is mostly about what happens when you lose the support of the press. Boris Johnson wasn't some political savant who knew how to lie with impunity and fend off scandal after scandal, he had the right wing press running cover for him (right up until they decided not to, anyway). Sunak doesn't have that, so he's not getting away with it.

Agree.

By the way I think this will go down like a lead balloon here. But.. as much as I like seeing the Tories fail, I really don’t care what he does for D-Day. I care what his plans are nhs, Ukraine,Palestine-Israel, immigration, austerity, inflation and cost of living etc. To me this is just in the same bucket as how the quality of Corbyn’s suit, Gordon brown mumbling that a bigot was a bigot, Julia Gillard falling over when being led away for safety by security etc - all stuff I wish the media would stop building up and pushing.

You’re right, I disagree.

Firstly he missed out on some personal time with Biden, Macron, Scholz and other leaders. I’ll leave Jim Hacker to explain why such events can be important: https://youtu.be/TeW3FltKvGM?si=5zT0r7DhyYmlzho8

For a Britain that has isolated itself from Europe and hasn’t forged closer relations with the US, the PM leaving early was a bad move.

National symbols are important. They are what give people a sense of unity and common purpose. The last decade has been very divisive and the one thing that almost every one can agreed upon is that D Day was a very good thing. The Prime Minister should be doing what he can to encourage unity.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 9:59 am

Bewildered wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 2:39 am

monkey wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:19 pm

He's not helping himself (and his advisors don't seem to be either), but to my eyes this is mostly about what happens when you lose the support of the press. Boris Johnson wasn't some political savant who knew how to lie with impunity and fend off scandal after scandal, he had the right wing press running cover for him (right up until they decided not to, anyway). Sunak doesn't have that, so he's not getting away with it.

Agree.

By the way I think this will go down like a lead balloon here. But.. as much as I like seeing the Tories fail, I really don’t care what he does for D-Day. I care what his plans are nhs, Ukraine,Palestine-Israel, immigration, austerity, inflation and cost of living etc. To me this is just in the same bucket as how the quality of Corbyn’s suit, Gordon brown mumbling that a bigot was a bigot, Julia Gillard falling over when being led away for safety by security etc - all stuff I wish the media would stop building up and pushing.

You’re right, I disagree.

Firstly he missed out on some personal time with Biden, Macron, Scholz and other leaders. I’ll leave Jim Hacker to explain why such events can be important: https://youtu.be/TeW3FltKvGM?si=5zT0r7DhyYmlzho8

For a Britain that has isolated itself from Europe and hasn’t forged closer relations with the US, the PM leaving early was a bad move.

National symbols are important. They are what give people a sense of unity and common purpose. The last decade has been very divisive and the one thing that almost every one can agreed upon is that D Day was a very good thing. The Prime Minister should be doing what he can to encourage unity.

Exactly. And I suspect the bold part is why Sunak initially intended to snub the whole event. Even before he decided to call the election. It's such a no brainer decision and shows a complete lack of judgement, even when he has time to reflect. It was unlike the other examples given for that reason, it was more deliberate.
To send an isolationist message for (misplaced) domestic political reasons. Misplaced, because he failed to understand why being against Europe might be popular with his pro Reform tribe, but disrespect to D-Day veterans wouldn't.

I also wonder how this will affect his personal electoral chances, given the local importance of Catterick Barracks.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 9:59 am Firstly he missed out on some personal time with Biden, Macron, Scholz and other leaders. I’ll leave Jim Hacker to explain why such events can be important: https://youtu.be/TeW3FltKvGM?si=5zT0r7DhyYmlzho8

But it meant Starmer had more of a chance to have personal time with these leaders.

My new theory: it was a noble and self-sacrificing plan by Sunak, done for the good of the country, giving his replacement a headstart on building relationships. But he couldn't admit this plan as it reveals he knows he'll lose.

Evidence for my new theory: none.

Evidence against my new theory: it assumes a noble act from a Tory so is inherently ludicrous.

Bewildered wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 2:39 am

monkey wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:19 pm

JQH wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 6:05 pm

He really has no idea how to do politics

He's not helping himself (and his advisors don't seem to be either), but to my eyes this is mostly about what happens when you lose the support of the press. Boris Johnson wasn't some political savant who knew how to lie with impunity and fend off scandal after scandal, he had the right wing press running cover for him (right up until they decided not to, anyway). Sunak doesn't have that, so he's not getting away with it.

Agree.

By the way I think this will go down like a lead balloon here. But.. as much as I like seeing the Tories fail, I really don’t care what he does for D-Day. I care what his plans are nhs, Ukraine,Palestine-Israel, immigration, austerity, inflation and cost of living etc. To me this is just in the same bucket as how the quality of Corbyn’s suit, Gordon brown mumbling that a bigot was a bigot, Julia Gillard falling over when being led away for safety by security etc - all stuff I wish the media would stop building up and pushing.

D-day wasn’t the opening of a car park, it does matter what our national leaders do at such events. They are there to represent us.

lpm wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 10:50 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 9:59 am Firstly he missed out on some personal time with Biden, Macron, Scholz and other leaders. I’ll leave Jim Hacker to explain why such events can be important: https://youtu.be/TeW3FltKvGM?si=5zT0r7DhyYmlzho8

But it meant Starmer had more of a chance to have personal time with these leaders.

My new theory: it was a noble and self-sacrificing plan by Sunak, done for the good of the country, giving his replacement a headstart on building relationships. But he couldn't admit this plan as it reveals he knows he'll lose.

Evidence for my new theory: none.

Evidence against my new theory: it assumes a noble act from a Tory so is inherently ludicrous.

Perhaps a more plausible theory is that six months ago Sunak's intermediary got very good odds on the Conservatives getting less than 50 seats, and he's working on making that happen.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 9:59 am

Bewildered wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 2:39 am

monkey wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:19 pm

He's not helping himself (and his advisors don't seem to be either), but to my eyes this is mostly about what happens when you lose the support of the press. Boris Johnson wasn't some political savant who knew how to lie with impunity and fend off scandal after scandal, he had the right wing press running cover for him (right up until they decided not to, anyway). Sunak doesn't have that, so he's not getting away with it.

Agree.

By the way I think this will go down like a lead balloon here. But.. as much as I like seeing the Tories fail, I really don’t care what he does for D-Day. I care what his plans are nhs, Ukraine,Palestine-Israel, immigration, austerity, inflation and cost of living etc. To me this is just in the same bucket as how the quality of Corbyn’s suit, Gordon brown mumbling that a bigot was a bigot, Julia Gillard falling over when being led away for safety by security etc - all stuff I wish the media would stop building up and pushing.

You’re right, I disagree.

Firstly he missed out on some personal time with Biden, Macron, Scholz and other leaders. I’ll leave Jim Hacker to explain why such events can be important: https://youtu.be/TeW3FltKvGM?si=5zT0r7DhyYmlzho8

For a Britain that has isolated itself from Europe and hasn’t forged closer relations with the US, the PM leaving early was a bad move.

National symbols are important. They are what give people a sense of unity and common purpose. The last decade has been very divisive and the one thing that almost every one can agreed upon is that D Day was a very good thing. The Prime Minister should be doing what he can to encourage unity.

Well I was expecting disagreement, but I wasn’t expecting your first point. Maybe you are right here, and yes clearly they will have discussions, but I didn’t have the impression that this was like a skipping a g7 summit etc. Also I haven’t seen any complaints along these lines until your posts the complaints are about disrespecting the sacrifices made by the dead and a lack of patriotism. So maybe you are right I honestly don’t know how to access the significance of such talks and how much cost there is, but I fell like it’s maybe a separate discussion as wits not really the criticism that is being made in the media. Well not that I am aware of anyway.

Maybe I’ll reply to your other points later.

It's not so much the planned discussions like a G7 summit, but the personal connections that lets stuff get done on trust, and that shapes the inputs to planned discussions and negotiations.

The impression Sunak has given is that he is deliberately sending the message that he doesn't care about other countries' sacrifices to defend Britain in WW2, and won't care about future sacrifices to defend our support Britain.

Apparently Sunak has cancelled his media appearances today.

In a meeting room in a sh.tty hotel somewhere in England his aides are gathered around a white board.

Written at the top are the words “How to move on from our mistakes and talk about our agenda”. Someone has underlined them, twice.

The rest of the board is blank.

Even in the (astronomically unlikely) event that Sunak wins the election, I think the 1066 committee would immediately hold a vote of no confidence.

I didn’t think the 1066 committee messed about with no confidence votes when it came to dispatching a leader. They preferred a rather more pointed intervention.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 11:05 am

lpm wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 10:50 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 9:59 am Firstly he missed out on some personal time with Biden, Macron, Scholz and other leaders. I’ll leave Jim Hacker to explain why such events can be important: https://youtu.be/TeW3FltKvGM?si=5zT0r7DhyYmlzho8

But it meant Starmer had more of a chance to have personal time with these leaders.

My new theory: it was a noble and self-sacrificing plan by Sunak, done for the good of the country, giving his replacement a headstart on building relationships. But he couldn't admit this plan as it reveals he knows he'll lose.

Evidence for my new theory: none.

Evidence against my new theory: it assumes a noble act from a Tory so is inherently ludicrous.

Perhaps a more plausible theory is that six months ago Sunak's intermediary got very good odds on the Conservatives getting less than 50 seats, and he's working on making that happen.

My unevidenced theory is that a few Important People have had a look at the party and gone "f.ck it, burn it all down and start again." and are feeding Sunak bad advice and engineering situations so's he looks like an idiot.

The 1066 committee had similar problems. Raced up north to defend the Red Wall areas. But that left them vulnerable in the Blue Wall so they raced south again.

He'll resign very quickly of his own accord. He's bored with this game. He just want's to get it over as soon as possible, without making it too obvious.

IvanV wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 5:40 pm He'll resign very quickly of his own accord. He's bored with this game. He just want's to get it over as soon as possible, without making it too obvious.

The question is how much is he prepared to work to defend other Tory's seats, and how many are at risk of he says f.ck it.

Although DAG mentioned on Twitter that the Tories best remaining campaign strategy may well be to do nothing and hide until it's all over.

Mail on Sunday poll - carried out after d-day debacle - is apparently showing a Tory wipeout - reduced to 37 seats. With Sunak losing his seat.

As desirable as that would be in many respects - retaining a few experienced MPs might not be a bad thing - to help with committee work and scrutiny of legislation. I would guess some of the Labour candidates in seats where it was assumed they'd have no hope - might not be the brightest crayons in the box.