Scrutable

Remember Maria Butina? Our favourite Russian spy? The one who shagged Republicans and leaders of the NRA for secrets and kompromat?

She's back. Showing solidarity with Putin's troops.

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/14 ... 8868058112

Some in Russia expect it to impose martial law tomorrow.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russia-marti ... -invasion/

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/14 ... 3829214209

Brightonian wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:48 pm Some in Russia expect it to impose martial law tomorrow.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russia-marti ... -invasion/

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/14 ... 3829214209

I hope everyone gets out ok
https://twitter.com/asluhn/status/14993 ... 88481?s=21

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:46 pm Remember Maria Butina? Our favourite Russian spy? The one who shagged Republicans and leaders of the NRA for secrets and kompromat?

She's back. Showing solidarity with Putin's troops.

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/14 ... 8868058112

I listened to this podcast last year. It says more about the weirdos in the GOP than it does about her. https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/cu ... r-1141887/

Stranger Mouse wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:58 pm

Brightonian wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:48 pm Some in Russia expect it to impose martial law tomorrow.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russia-marti ... -invasion/

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/14 ... 3829214209

I hope everyone gets out ok
https://twitter.com/asluhn/status/14993 ... 88481?s=21

A Russian friend who lives in London has explained this to her friends on Facebook. We have quite a few friends from Russian and Belarus through our dance connections. They're all absolutely wonderful people and I met them in various events in Europe and the USA.

The new rules that have already been discussed in Russia:

It’s 3 years jail + ~£10,000 fine for just saying it’s war. It you’re calling it a war while being a journalist, an editor, maybe even a teacher, it’s getting more complicated: fines are higher and the imprisonment is longer. Up to 15 years.

Putin is finished, but I wonder how long he can hold one for...

headshot wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:49 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:58 pm

Brightonian wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:48 pm Some in Russia expect it to impose martial law tomorrow.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russia-marti ... -invasion/

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/14 ... 3829214209

I hope everyone gets out ok
https://twitter.com/asluhn/status/14993 ... 88481?s=21

A Russian friend who lives in London has explained this to her friends on Facebook. We have quite a few friends from Russian and Belarus through our dance connections. They're all absolutely wonderful people and I met them in various events in Europe and the USA.

The new rules that have already been discussed in Russia:

It’s 3 years jail + ~£10,000 fine for just saying it’s war. It you’re calling it a war while being a journalist, an editor, maybe even a teacher, it’s getting more complicated: fines are higher and the imprisonment is longer. Up to 15 years.

Putin is finished, but I wonder how long he can hold one for...

In the short term he’ll be stronger

Incredible footage from the New York Times with missiles and people highlighted https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1499 ... 91957?s=21

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499410431726731271

#BREAKING Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for halt to Ukraine war

Their shares have tanked before this (unsurprisingly)

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:46 pm Remember Maria Butina? Our favourite Russian spy? The one who shagged Republicans and leaders of the NRA for secrets and kompromat?

She's back. Showing solidarity with Putin's troops.

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/14 ... 8868058112

She was previously concern trolling about Ukrainian citizens getting rifles as toddlers might get access to them and have accidents.

Which was a stonking take even by their standards

jimbob wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:19 pm

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:46 pm Remember Maria Butina? Our favourite Russian spy? The one who shagged Republicans and leaders of the NRA for secrets and kompromat?

She's back. Showing solidarity with Putin's troops.

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/14 ... 8868058112

She was previously concern trolling about Ukrainian citizens getting rifles as toddlers might get access to them and have accidents.

Which was a stonking take even by their standards

I find it fascinating that she got access to the GOP by claiming to be a member of a gun rights association because as well know individual gun rights are strongly supported in the Russian Federation

Russia outraged by being thrown out of football competitions, and challenging it in court. Have FIFA no respect for the rule of law?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60607645

Stranger Mouse wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:47 pm

jimbob wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:19 pm

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:46 pm Remember Maria Butina? Our favourite Russian spy? The one who shagged Republicans and leaders of the NRA for secrets and kompromat?

She's back. Showing solidarity with Putin's troops.

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/14 ... 8868058112

She was previously concern trolling about Ukrainian citizens getting rifles as toddlers might get access to them and have accidents.

Which was a stonking take even by their standards

I find it fascinating that she got access to the GOP by claiming to be a member of a gun rights association because as well know individual gun rights are strongly supported in the Russian Federation

There's quite a few videos online showing Ukrainian civilians with military style weapons that they were gifted by Russia...

dyqik wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:17 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:47 pm

jimbob wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:19 pm

She was previously concern trolling about Ukrainian citizens getting rifles as toddlers might get access to them and have accidents.

Which was a stonking take even by their standards

I find it fascinating that she got access to the GOP by claiming to be a member of a gun rights association because as well know individual gun rights are strongly supported in the Russian Federation

There's quite a few videos online showing Ukrainian civilians with military style weapons that they were gifted by Russia...

We aren't just talking Kalashnikovs here, but everything up to and including tanks.

They are getting a lot more efficient at quickly stripping and burning Russian vehicles, too, including four AA systems worth sixteen million dollars each parked side by side and torched. They are also scavenging reactive armour tiles - which are packed with explosives - and heavy ammunition, which would make very effective IEDs, and automatic grenade launchers and heavy machine guns that would be effective against any non-armoured vehicle.

Russia still has a lot of advantages, and is increasingly turning to horrific tactics targetting civilians en masse, but their actual troops are engaging in the kind of blunders one saw in the Winter War.

FFS
Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant

Gfamily wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 12:34 am FFS
Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant

Russia quite likely targetting it as a deliberate attempt to cut power across Ukraine. Attacking power, water etc has been something they've done throughout their bombardment of Syria.

What's the potential "inconvenience" level from radiation, here? I assume it couldn't be another Chernobyl-level event, but might it still be conveniently situated between "no biggy" and "detonating a nuclear bomb"?

Bird on a Fire wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:11 am What's the potential "inconvenience" level from radiation, here? I assume it couldn't be another Chernobyl-level event, but might it still be conveniently situated between "no biggy" and "detonating a nuclear bomb"?

Very unlikely to be Chornobyl type event due to different reactor design. Possible radiation leak, but not necessarily that likely. People now talk about fire coming under control. Key thing is that the reactors need to be cooled.

Shelling it is still indefensible, and even if there were no nuclear hazard, targetting civilian infrastructure is not acceptable.

I'm also pretty certain that a nuclear power plant qualifies as an installation containing dangerous forces under the Geneva convention, so really, really not an acceptable target.

Gfamily wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 12:34 am FFS
Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant

Hasn’t affected essential equipment. Yet.
https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1499 ... 22017?s=21

jaap wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:01 am

Millennie Al wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:47 am However, international relations necessitates a high level of maturity - realising that you can't always get what you want and frequently you have to accept the risk posed by others. Russia has to be realistic - other countries prefer to align with NATO and it has to accept that and any direct confrontational attempts to change it are extremely unlikely to fail.

I think you misnegated your last sentence there.

Yes. Sorry! I had a choice between "unlikely to succeed" and "likely to fail" and scrambled them.

You see lots of maps showing areas of Russian control in Ukraine.

This is probably the most accurate as the Russian invaders have kept to the major roads and haven’t attempted to control the countryside. They basically control a section of road while their forces are driving on it. Hence the many videos of Ukrainian farmers towing away abandoned Russian military vehicles.
Source: https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1499 ... 23656?s=21

As mentioned before the invasion, if Russia is to try to control large parts of Ukrainian territory it’s going to have to allocate a lot of troops to do that. It may have to if it faces unsustainable losses to its supply convoys from Ukrainian ambushes.However Russia doesn’t have enough troops in the theatre to do that and also take Kyiv and other major cities. If it’s going to try it’ll have to transfer in large numbers of additional troops, which will probably entail calling up reserves.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:17 am You see lots of maps showing areas of Russian control in Ukraine.

This is probably the most accurate as the Russian invaders have kept to the major roads and haven’t attempted to control the countryside. They basically control a section of road while their forces are driving on it. Hence the many videos of Ukrainian farmers towing away abandoned Russian military vehicles.

88A586BA-19B8-40CF-B9DE-E8F67569BE02.jpeg
Source: https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1499 ... 23656?s=21

As mentioned before the invasion, if Russia is to try to control large parts of Ukrainian territory it’s going to have to allocate a lot of troops to do that. It may have to if it faces unsustainable losses to its supply convoys from Ukrainian ambushes.However Russia doesn’t have enough troops in the theatre to do that and also take Kyiv and other major cities. If it’s going to try it’ll have to transfer in large numbers of additional troops, which will probably entail calling up reserves.

Someone somewhere observed a while back it was as if they were attempting blitzkrieg but forgot everything except the first echelon. In blitzkrieg/deep battle/manouevre warfare, the first echelon punches a bunch of holes in the line and races forward, bypassing strongly held positions in order to get at the adversary's rear, so as to isolate those that have been bypassed. Second and third echelons then assault those bypassed strongpoints and secure the areas that have been captured.

The Russians got the first bit right, but they didn't bother with the rest. Sure, they penetrated the Ukrainian frontline, but they effectively penetrated their own frontline in the process. That's left their supply lines extremely vulnerable. When you see a map showing shaded areas supposedly under Russian control, it's probably better to view it as places the Russians have crossed. They haven't taken the time to ensure that area is not filled with Ukrainian regular forces, special forces, territorials and angry farmers armed with looted weapons.

An example would be Chernihiv. The Russians passed Chernihiv in the first day or two. Russian convoys around Chernihiv are getting hit regularly, and it's hardly the only example.

I enjoy the videos of farmers towing tanks, but surely they’d be better off disabling them permanently and leaving them as roadblocks?

Grumble wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:47 am I enjoy the videos of farmers towing tanks, but surely they’d be better off disabling them permanently and leaving them as roadblocks?

That depends on where they are, and where the roads need blocking, which is not something we can generally discern from the videos. At least one of the bits of footage showed a professional recovery recovering some Russian armour in order to hand it over to the Ukrainian army, where it might be of use against the Russians.

Mods, please move if this is the wrong place.

If you are looking to donate to a humanitarian charity, then the government is matching donations to the DEC up to £20M so that is probably pretty efficient use of your money - and you can giftaid it too if you're a UK taxpayer.

https://donation.dec.org.uk/ukraine-hum ... an-appeal/ the governmen

Grumble wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 8:47 am I enjoy the videos of farmers towing tanks, but surely they’d be better off disabling them permanently and leaving them as roadblocks?

I assume that the tanks are going to be handed over to Ukrainian army units. But for that to be a realistic there can’t be many Russian forces in the vicinity.

According to Dominic Raab, Putin might end up in prison because of the invasion. Is he actually stupid enough to believe this.