Scrutable

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:13 am Yes, I think complacency could be a fair factor on Thursday. Which is maybe why we've seen drops of around four points between opinion polling and actual votes when Labour have won big in the past. I do think though, perhaps this time it might be a little less than four points, largely because the polls seem to be capturing that movement already.

That drop is also sufficient to reduce complacency a bit. And some of the change will likely be because postal voters are now not responding, or are counted differently, because they've already voted.

Final Survation MRP

LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
REF 7
PC 3
GRN 3

CON men range from 34 to 99.

Survation:

"Labour is virtually certain (probability greater than 99%) to win more than they won in 1997 under Tony Blair, when Labour won 418 seats by polling 13 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives."

"Labour is also likely (probability of around 78%) to win more seats than Stanley Baldwin’s Conservatives did in 1931, when they won 470 of 615 seats."

"The Conservatives are slightly more likely than not (probability: 53%) to win more seats than the Liberal Democrats and become the official opposition, but despite this Sir Ed Davey stands a reasonable chance of becoming the first Liberal or Liberal Democrat Leader of the Opposition since Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman (1900 – 1905)."

The Guardian is suggesting that the postal voting problems will hurt the Tories more than others - something that the polls won't capture.

(I still haven't received my postal ballot here in MA. But my constituency is a safe Lib Dem hold)

Sunak has been busy campaigning in Witney and elsewhere in small town Oxfordshire today. Which I seem to remember being bluer than a Tory's testicle during a C&BT session in the Arctic in the winter.

The Survation model suggests that Farage would be the only Reform MP. I'm sure he'll enjoy that power.

If the Lib Dems were a couple of seats behind the Tories, would any Labour MPs switch to the Lib Dems just for the lols?

A few Tories might switch if someone like Braverman became leader.

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:26 pm would any Labour MPs switch to the Lib Dems just for the lols? ;)

Not sure we would be able to take any more lols. We'd be totally lolled out for a couple of years. There are health risks to the excessive lollism predicted by this poll.

At my local hustings. Liam Fox has just said, in his opening speech, that he wants to reduce the abortion limit to 22 weeks.

Liam Fox is (a) still alive? And (b) running again after all his scandals?

Survation has North Somerset as a Labour win, 45-26.

lpm wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:08 pm Liam Fox is (a) still alive? And (b) running again after all his scandals?

Survation has North Somerset as a Labour win, 45-26.

Fox is still alive and is nervous for the first time ever. That said, I don't think labour will win, I think the progressive parties will once again split the vote and he'll get in again but with a significantly reduced majority. I'll be at the count on Thursday which should be interesting

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:14 pm (I still haven't received my postal ballot here in MA. But my constituency is a safe Lib Dem hold)

If you're a migrant, a proxy vote is the way forward, if you know someone you can trust enough to tick a box/spoil it correctly. I suggest getting your friends to draw cocks and balls for you and picking the best one for the job.

I learnt this in 2015 when I was unsure of my vote getting back in time.

Apparently some UKIP candidates are surprised that an anti-immigrant Andrew Tate supporting party has some hateful racists and misogynists as fellow candidates. How could any life form with more than one synapse not see that before they joined?

monkey wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:33 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:14 pm (I still haven't received my postal ballot here in MA. But my constituency is a safe Lib Dem hold)

If you're a migrant, a proxy vote is the way forward, if you know someone you can trust enough to tick a box/spoil it correctly. I suggest getting your friends to draw cocks and balls for you and picking the best one for the job.

I learnt this in 2015 when I was unsure of my vote getting back in time.

I don't have anyone in the constituency to do this for me - I've been gone 13 years.

monkey wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:33 pm If you're a migrant, a proxy vote is the way forward, if you know someone you can trust enough to tick a box/spoil it correctly. I suggest getting your friends to draw cocks and balls for you and picking the best one for the job.

If spoiling, make sure the cock and balls doesn't fall against just one candidate - as that could be counted as a vote.

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:11 pm

monkey wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:33 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:14 pm (I still haven't received my postal ballot here in MA. But my constituency is a safe Lib Dem hold)

If you're a migrant, a proxy vote is the way forward, if you know someone you can trust enough to tick a box/spoil it correctly. I suggest getting your friends to draw cocks and balls for you and picking the best one for the job.

I learnt this in 2015 when I was unsure of my vote getting back in time.

I don't have anyone in the constituency to do this for me - I've been gone 13 years.

No cock and balls fun for you.

Local parties might be allowed to organise a proxy for you. Not sure though. Might be worth sending an email next time. You don't have to know the person, just trust them, and I bet someone at the (e.g.) Labour club will vote Labour for you.

monkey wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 11:18 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:11 pm

monkey wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 8:33 pm

If you're a migrant, a proxy vote is the way forward, if you know someone you can trust enough to tick a box/spoil it correctly. I suggest getting your friends to draw cocks and balls for you and picking the best one for the job.

I learnt this in 2015 when I was unsure of my vote getting back in time.

I don't have anyone in the constituency to do this for me - I've been gone 13 years.

No cock and balls fun for you.

Local parties might be allowed to organise a proxy for you. Not sure though. Might be worth sending an email next time. You don't have to know the person, just trust them, and I bet someone at the (e.g.) Labour club will vote Labour for you.

This - I did this soon after moving to Brighton. I didn't know anyone whose politics I knew, but there was a local party activist whom I knew by sight so I just asked him and he was more than happy to oblige. Turned out he handled other people's proxies as well.

However, looks like it's too late anyway for tomorrow's election, unless you get an emergency proxy which it's unlikely you'd qualify for anyway. Official rules here: https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/voting-by-proxy

What do we reckon to the MRP probabilities method for Reform? Seats are allocated to parties even if they don't lead in those constituencies.

It makes sense for Labour vs Conservatives, where there are over 50 seats with small winning margins in their model. Inevitably the noise will mean some go one way, some go the other. Likewise LibDems.

Survation have the Conservatives leading in only 53, but boost them to 64 due for probability. Which doesn't matter in the scheme of things.

But for Reform they are only leading in one place (Clacton), yet Survation forecast 7 wins. Looks like there are 15 seats where Reform are a close second in their model, so they award them about half.

But 7 is a great victory for the tw.ts while 1 is a flop. With 7 they would be a noisy pain in the neck for 4/5 years. One is just Farage getting bored.

...until he resigns after about 6 months, and then there's a by-election.

Polling for today

- final EPD tracker
- YouGov final MRP (5pm)
- Survation final update to MRP

None of these will be able to pick up the huge swing back to the Conservatives following Boris Johnson's historic speech last night. Almost certainly Johnson's intervention will give the Conservatives the largest party, if not an outright majority. The oratory! In the annals of political speeches, from Cicero to JFK, nothing has compared to following:

Johnson wrote:Don’t let the Putinistas deliver the Corbynistas. Don’t let Putin’s pet parrots give this entire country psittacosis – which is a disease you get by the way from cosying up to pet parrots.

If Farage does get in, how will that affect his ability to go campaigning for Trump?

Farage will be too devoted to the people of Clacton to spare any time. Trump won't be able to drag him away from his constituents and their concerns.

Or he'll just bugger off and do what he likes.

One or the other.

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:25 am But 7 is a great victory for the tw.ts while 1 is a flop. With 7 they would be a noisy pain in the neck for 4/5 years. One is just Farage getting bored.

I agree. As well as seven MPs, each MP gets an office allowance including pay for assistants. If reform have ambitions to be more than a Farage fan club they could use all that to be a much greater presence. Alternatively they could just piss it away.

Not sure what remaining polling will be published, but I'll try to capture it all and post something later today, maybe tomorrow morning. General theme is the Labour lead seems to be dropping but the Tories aren't gaining much in these final polls.

Brightonian wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 6:02 am

monkey wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 11:18 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:11 pm

I don't have anyone in the constituency to do this for me - I've been gone 13 years.

No cock and balls fun for you.

Local parties might be allowed to organise a proxy for you. Not sure though. Might be worth sending an email next time. You don't have to know the person, just trust them, and I bet someone at the (e.g.) Labour club will vote Labour for you.

This - I did this soon after moving to Brighton. I didn't know anyone whose politics I knew, but there was a local party activist whom I knew by sight so I just asked him and he was more than happy to oblige. Turned out he handled other people's proxies as well.

However, looks like it's too late anyway for tomorrow's election, unless you get an emergency proxy which it's unlikely you'd qualify for anyway. Official rules here: https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/voting-by-proxy

Thanks for that, good to know.

I thought it'd be something they'd do if they could - like them driving people to the stations on polling day, but wouldn't be surprised if there was a rule against campaigners doing it either.

Brightonian wrote: Wed Jul 03, 2024 6:02 am

monkey wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 11:18 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2024 9:11 pm

I don't have anyone in the constituency to do this for me - I've been gone 13 years.

No cock and balls fun for you.

Local parties might be allowed to organise a proxy for you. Not sure though. Might be worth sending an email next time. You don't have to know the person, just trust them, and I bet someone at the (e.g.) Labour club will vote Labour for you.

This - I did this soon after moving to Brighton. I didn't know anyone whose politics I knew, but there was a local party activist whom I knew by sight so I just asked him and he was more than happy to oblige. Turned out he handled other people's proxies as well.

However, looks like it's too late anyway for tomorrow's election, unless you get an emergency proxy which it's unlikely you'd qualify for anyway. Official rules here: https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/voting-by-proxy

You'd think that non-arrival of postal ballots would be a reason for an emergency proxy vote.