Scrutable

Happy Tories Get a Kicking Day

I'm really nervous for my area. The Tories lost over half their seats last time - they have a single councillor in my constituency (the local authority is made of two electoral constituencies, but will get messier when the boundary changes come in). Any gains will be seen as a victory. And they don't start counting until 9.30am so I'm just waiting and stressing.

Are local candidates allowed to pay for Facebook posts?

The Tory here has packed the feed with several posts a day. They say "Sponsored - paid for by X". I assume I see them because the only thing I follow on Facebook is the local group.

I thought there was a spending limit of a few hundred quid for a couple of leaflets. No idea how much Facebook costs though.

In my area (Dudley Borough) the Tories lost three wards to Labour and gained from from an Independent (former Tory who was kicked out).

They held loads of wards though and still maintain overall control. The people hear really are very, very stupid.

lpm wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:49 am Are local candidates allowed to pay for Facebook posts?

The Tory here has packed the feed with several posts a day. They say "Sponsored - paid for by X". I assume I see them because the only thing I follow on Facebook is the local group.

I thought there was a spending limit of a few hundred quid for a couple of leaflets. No idea how much Facebook costs though.

It looks like it's not a simple number as it depends on things like the number of electors and also whether you are a joint candidate with someone else, but it's going to be more in the high hundreds, possibly over 1k.

The cost of Facebook ads is even harder to work out but apparently 2023 average is around $12 per 1000 impressions. So you can probably get a pretty hefty number of impressions and still have plenty left for other stuff.

Turnout completely appalling. Under 20% in several Dudley wards, and around 25-30% elsewhere.

All wards had lower turnout than 2022.

Appalling.

Fishnut wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:18 am I'm really nervous for my area. The Tories lost over half their seats last time - they have a single councillor in my constituency (the local authority is made of two electoral constituencies, but will get messier when the boundary changes come in). Any gains will be seen as a victory. And they don't start counting until 9.30am so I'm just waiting and stressing.

Some political expert was saying the other day that we should be cautious about looking at seats won/lost for these elections, as the Tories had a pretty poor year 3 years ago when the seats up this time round were elected. So if there wasn't much change, it would still be a bad result for the Tories. Given that, I don't think your area is likely to be alone in this position, and yet the Tories are still losing seats all over the place. So if they do have a gain or two in your council, they might well try to spin it as a good result, but I don't think most people will fall for it.

I hope that your fears are unfounded though.

I'm in one of the councils with no elections this time, so I'm looking on with happiness but a twinge of disappointment that we've missed out on a great chance to kick a few Tories out of our heavily Tory dominated council. We'll be electing the whole lot next year.

headshot wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:24 am Turnout completely appalling. Under 20% in one Dudley ward, and around 25% elsewhere.

All wards had lower turnout than 2022.

How much is just general disillusionment and how much is around the ID requirements, I wonder? Hopefully the survey that the Electoral Commission say they're planning will give us some enlightenment on that in the next few weeks.

bagpuss wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:26 am

headshot wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:24 am Turnout completely appalling. Under 20% in one Dudley ward, and around 25% elsewhere.

All wards had lower turnout than 2022.

How much is just general disillusionment and how much is around the ID requirements, I wonder? Hopefully the survey that the Electoral Commission say they're planning will give us some enlightenment on that in the next few weeks.

Sorry, edited my post. Several wards under 20%!

bagpuss wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:26 am

headshot wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:24 am Turnout completely appalling. Under 20% in one Dudley ward, and around 25% elsewhere.

All wards had lower turnout than 2022.

How much is just general disillusionment and how much is around the ID requirements, I wonder? Hopefully the survey that the Electoral Commission say they're planning will give us some enlightenment on that in the next few weeks.

However, the effect of 'greeters' may skew that survey somewhat.

My area has gone from Conservative to NOC but with the Tories having 3 seats more than the next party. Although that's still good considering how entrenched the Tories have been here.

headshot wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:57 am In my area (Dudley Borough) the Tories lost three wards to Labour and gained from from an Independent (former Tory who was kicked out).

They held loads of wards though and still maintain overall control. The people hear really are very, very stupid.

Turnout completely appalling. Under 20% in one Dudley ward, and around 25% elsewhere.

All wards had lower turnout than 2022.

There's a substantial minority of stupid everywhere, and with 20% turnout the stupid can predominate.

I asked an Italian once why the Italians voted for Berlusconi, when everyone knows what a jerk he is, and I received the compelling reply, "Did you see the alternatives?"

There can be local issues. I don't know whether this applies in Dudley, but one of my co-workers lives in Lewisham, where the Labour party is still dominated by Momentum, who succeed in causing substantial local disruption with their political stunts. If it's like that in Dudley, many of the locals may feel unable to vote for Labour. And the voters who wouldn't wish to actively vote Tory either may feel that voting for a 3rd party was just a waste of time, and so fail to turn up, as indicated by this low turnout.

Additionally, in a relatively deprived area like Dudley we might be concerned over whether the Voter ID requirements had caused substantial suppression.

bagpuss wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:11 am

lpm wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 7:49 am Are local candidates allowed to pay for Facebook posts?

The Tory here has packed the feed with several posts a day. They say "Sponsored - paid for by X". I assume I see them because the only thing I follow on Facebook is the local group.

I thought there was a spending limit of a few hundred quid for a couple of leaflets. No idea how much Facebook costs though.

It looks like it's not a simple number as it depends on things like the number of electors and also whether you are a joint candidate with someone else, but it's going to be more in the high hundreds, possibly over 1k.

The cost of Facebook ads is even harder to work out but apparently 2023 average is around $12 per 1000 impressions. So you can probably get a pretty hefty number of impressions and still have plenty left for other stuff.

Thanks, I did the maths, and the candidate could spend £811.

Which makes me wonder why more candidates don't use Facebook in this way. She definitely made you feel like she was a neighbour, getting across her personality with a photo of her daughter posting leaflets and a video of her dog staring at a local pothole. And she linked to longer blogs where she gave her views on litter and Nimbys and parking.

Unfortunately she might have got across her personality too well, because her personality is obnoxious Tory.

lpm wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 9:35 am Which makes me wonder why more candidates don't use Facebook in this way. She definitely made you feel like she was a neighbour, getting across her personality with a photo of her daughter posting leaflets and a video of her dog staring at a local pothole. And she linked to longer blogs where she gave her views on litter and Nimbys and parking.

It would be dangerous for a candidate here to suggest that they might do something about the potholes. Where would they get that much money?

Buckinghamshire roads have been notorious among cyclists for some time now as some of the most potholed in the country. And it is quite unbelievable what that frosty patch in the late winter has done to them over the last few weeks. I don't think anywhere has anything like the amount of money to spend on potholes that would be needed here. It's not filling individual holes that's needed, it's resurfacing extensive lengths of road where the surface is falling apart or cracking up.

There is a statistic in the current Private Eye that in the last year about 1% of the local roads in England were resurfaced. Which is fine if they only need resurfacing once every 100 years.

Grumble wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 6:03 am Happy Tories Get a Kicking Day

Currently they're nicely on track to lose ~1000 councilors... which I believe is what t'news predicted a few days ago...

Aitch wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:51 am

bagpuss wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:26 am

headshot wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 8:24 am Turnout completely appalling. Under 20% in one Dudley ward, and around 25% elsewhere.

All wards had lower turnout than 2022.

How much is just general disillusionment and how much is around the ID requirements, I wonder? Hopefully the survey that the Electoral Commission say they're planning will give us some enlightenment on that in the next few weeks.

However, the effect of 'greeters' may skew that survey somewhat.

Even without that, you wouldn't know how many hadn't even bothered to go at all because they didn't have ID.

Chap from the Electoral Commission on R4 Today programme this morning said they are going to do a survey of a random selection of people to ask about whether they voted and if not, why not. That's the survey I was referring to.

It could be that some of the reduced turn out is that people who normally vote Tory and sitting on their hands this time rather than vote for anyone else.

bjn wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 11:57 am It could be that some of the reduced turn out is that people who normally vote Tory and sitting on their hands this time rather than vote for anyone else.

It could be. It's not consistent with what happened in Sandwell (the authority which includes Dudley) that headshot mentions. But maybe Sandwell is a distinctive case.

Overly simple maths (230 councils/84 declared x 224 current Tory losses =) gives 613 Tory losses

What’s going on in Boston? Where’s our Lincolnshire correspondent?

Grumble wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:00 pm What’s going on in Boston? Where’s our Lincolnshire correspondent?

Local parties for local people?

Grumble wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 12:57 pm Overly simple maths (230 councils/84 declared x 224 current Tory losses =) gives 613 Tory losses

Toryland counts later, so they'll lose relatively more this afternoon than overnight.

It's things like this that really piss me off:

the Guardian wrote:If the view takes hold that a Labour victory against Sunak is inevitable, some Conservative MPs will in effect throw in the towel, take on second jobs, and mentally check out of politics for the next year. One Tory MP with a relatively safe southern seat said his main reaction was mulling his own private sector job options given his lack of appetite for a stint in opposition.

lpm wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:08 pm

Grumble wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 12:57 pm Overly simple maths (230 councils/84 declared x 224 current Tory losses =) gives 613 Tory losses

Toryland counts later, so they'll lose relatively more this afternoon than overnight.

Maybe, I’d like to think you’re correct.

lpm wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:08 pm

Grumble wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 12:57 pm Overly simple maths (230 councils/84 declared x 224 current Tory losses =) gives 613 Tory losses

Toryland counts later, so they'll lose relatively more this afternoon than overnight.

Fenland just declared with +9 seats to Con