OxRec Recidivism tool failure in the Netherlands

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jaap
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OxRec Recidivism tool failure in the Netherlands

Post by jaap »

In the Dutch news is an item about a new report released today that completely panned the use of a tool for estimating the risk of recidivism in people up for parole. The tool has been in use since 2018 and was based on the OxRec model, shown on this page, which was developed for use in Sweden.

The report was exceptionally damning. It found that in the implementation used in the Netherlands:
  • Two formulas were swapped around. One formula applied to convicts, the other to suspects.
  • An incorrect value was used for one coefficient, causing it to grossly understimate risks associated with drug use.
  • The model was originally trained on data from Sweden from 20 years ago, and not retrained on data from the Dutch population, or even more recent data.
  • The tool was structurally used in a situation where there is no information on serious mental health issues, which is one of the inputs needed in the model. They used the model as if everyone had perfect mental health, instead of recalibrating/retraining it for use without mental health data.
  • Some of the inputs lead to discriminatory bias. In particular, postal code (a "neighbourhood score") and income were used, which tends to grossly discriminate against immigrants. The use of such input has in fact been ruled illegal without proper safeguards or mitigation, apart from extremely rare exceptions. There was no measurement, evaluation, let alone mitigation put in place here.
  • The staff were told in their training for using the tool that their own judgement was unreliable. They had little choice but to rely on the software, which was presented as being fair and unprejudiced.
  • Management failed to reflect on and evaluate the software and its use, so that its shortcomings went unnoticed for years.
Some of these criticisms had been raised from the start.

The use of this tool has been immediately halted.
FlammableFlower
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Re: OxRec Recidivism tool failure in the Netherlands

Post by FlammableFlower »

Wow. Just, wow.
kerrya1
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Re: OxRec Recidivism tool failure in the Netherlands

Post by kerrya1 »

I wonder how the accuracy of this system would compare with, for example, results from reading an individual's tarot cards, getting them to roll a D20 for future risk to the public?
noggins
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Re: OxRec Recidivism tool failure in the Netherlands

Post by noggins »

It would rate worse. Randomness is neutral.

Also, an obviously absurd process is easier to scrap.
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jimbob
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Re: OxRec Recidivism tool failure in the Netherlands

Post by jimbob »

noggins wrote: Fri Feb 13, 2026 4:31 pm It would rate worse. Randomness is neutral.

Also, an obviously absurd process is easier to scrap.
Ouch.

I'm assuming cockup rather than malice.

How did anyone think that the location of people's homes would be a suitable input? For example.

Or in fact the whole approach. Which seems to be the ecological fallacy writ large.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: OxRec Recidivism tool failure in the Netherlands

Post by Formerly AvP »

jimbob wrote: Sat Feb 14, 2026 7:04 am
noggins wrote: Fri Feb 13, 2026 4:31 pm It would rate worse. Randomness is neutral.

Also, an obviously absurd process is easier to scrap.
Ouch.

I'm assuming cockup rather than malice.

How did anyone think that the location of people's homes would be a suitable input? For example.
I was brought up (or 'grew up' might be better) on a Glasgow council housing scheme/estate. Billy Connolly called these 'deserts wi' windaes'. 40,000 people with virtually no infrastructure like shops or pubs. Incomes were low, and as a result substance abuse (mostly alcohol then, but later drugs) was high. High (and justified) levels of hostility to police led to areas being effectively not policed at all. Lack of facilities for young people led to gangs (I would still hyperventilate if I heard someone shout 'Tongs ya Bass'). Crime syndicates (sometimes families) were a feature. Discrimination against 'schemos' meant it was harder to get a job, and as people underwent the crime apprenticeship of jail, further crime seemed to be their only option, sadly often stealing from their neighbours rather than the rich. I went to the local comprehensive, which was full of bleak comedy (prefects got a 5 minute start on the rest of the school at the end of the day, and not coincidently we had a prize winning cross country running team). I was super lucky in bonding with the strongest and most violent guy in the school - he was plainly mentally unwell, but a brilliant chess player, so we were friends and I was protected for 4 years).
Then I went to University (most unusually), and discovered there were posh places like Bearsden and Milngavie in Glasgow. So yes, I do think there might be a higher chance of recidivism for someone from Pollock than for someone from Bearsden.

Sorry for the reminiscent rambling, I don't regret any of it, incidentally, except for having lost touch with my pal.
Was Allo V Psycho, but when my laptop died, I lost all the info on it...
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