Trump 2.0

[bjn]

I don't think I've ever heard a single word of what Mike Johnson actually thinks about anything. Since I became aware of him his every utterance has been doggedly sycophantic to Trump's latest whim.

He likes to track his son's p.rn habits, so there's that.

They track each other’s habits.

[bjn]

[double post]

[FlammableFlower]

I don't think I've ever heard a single word of what Mike Johnson actually thinks about anything. Since I became aware of him his every utterance has been doggedly sycophantic to Trump's latest whim.

So far all I've ever heard from him is him explaining how he hasn't seen, heard or have any awareness of whatever the latest thing Trump has done.

He seems to have managed to achieve a high state of enlightenment given he's so distanced from the material world around him...

In other news, the US government managed to luck with the markets, tweeting (then deleting) that they were escorting tankers through the straits. Then Trump tried to encourage tanker captains to show courage and go through anyway, and several hit mines. Well done Donald.

[jimbob]

I don't think I've ever heard a single word of what Mike Johnson actually thinks about anything. Since I became aware of him his every utterance has been doggedly sycophantic to Trump's latest whim.

So far all I've ever heard from him is him explaining how he hasn't seen, heard or have any awareness of whatever the latest thing Trump has done.

He seems to have managed to achieve a high state of enlightenment given he's so distanced from the material world around him...

In other news, the US government managed to luck with the markets, tweeting (then deleting) that they were escorting tankers through the straits. Then Trump tried to encourage tanker captains to show courage and go through anyway, and several hit mines. Well done Donald.

I'd say it seems to be worse than that

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics ... mated-iran

The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

The reality in the strait has left diplomatic counterparts, former US economic and energy officials and industry executives who spoke with CNN in a state of confusion and disbelief.

“Planning around preventing this exact scenario — impossible as it has long seemed — has been a bedrock principle of US national security policy for decades,” a former US official who served in Republican and Democratic administrations said. “I’m dumbfounded.”

It's not as if the Iranian regime hadn't attempted that before. In fact, their proxies had done similar to the Red Sea recently as well. I'm a bit surprised that they haven't repeated that.

But it did lead to this beautiful take which Google suggests was from the NYT.

For years, the common wisdom among military analysts was that Iran would not close the strait because it needed it open to export its own oil. But shipping analysts say that in recent days, Iran has been loading oil and exporting it through the strait.

[Formerly AvP]

The USS Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group has been despatched from its base in Okinawa to the Middle East. USS Tripoli would be called an aircraft carrier in anyone else's navy, and is accompanied by USS New Orleans, an amphibious dock transport and escorted by the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Robert Smalls (CG-62) and Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Rafael Peralta (DDG-115).
The ARG can deploy a Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is an expanded battalion of Marines, with some 2,200 personnel. USS Tripoli embarks F35s (possibly some AV8 Harriers) and the ARG has a variety of other aircraft, helicopters, landing craft and hovercraft, so can make both air and sea assaults.
The question is, what are they thinking of doing? Two obvious targets are Kharg Island, where about 90% of Iran's oil is transhipped, and the Iranian coast line of the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration recently announced ("bragged") that military installations on Kharg Island had all been "totally obliterated". If it is the target, it would seem unwise to make such a public fuss about attacking these. On the other hand, wisdom seems to be in rather short supply in the administration. The other possible option, seizing part of the Iranian mainland, seems a big task for just over 2000 marines.
I think the larger vessels might hesitate to transit the Strait in the first instance, so a helicopter based assault might seem more likely, perhaps also using fast hovercraft.
It will take at least 10 days for the ARG to reach the Gulf, rather begging the question of why this wasn't part of the original force mix. And now the Iranians know it is on its way, no doubt they will be making appropriate plans.
Moving the ARG from japan, also weakens US interests in that region. Apparently, anti missile systems have been withdrawn from South Korea. there must be a temptation for China to move against Taiwan, or North Korea to move against South Korea, given US commitments.
Historical echoes might be attempting to force the Dardanelles with naval vessels in WW1, followed by attempts to seize the land margins in the Gallipoli campaign, and the Falklands War, in conducting landings from a carrier-escorted landing group.

[bjn]

Moving the ARG through the straights of Hormuz to get to Kharg Island might be somewhat problematic.

[jimbob]

Moving the ARG through the straights of Hormuz to get to Kharg Island might be somewhat problematic.

Exactly. It is something that 5000 marines could achieve, unlike actual regime change

[Formerly AvP]

I think '5000' is the number of personnel in the whole ARG, while the 'Marine Expeditionary Unit' is about 2200. It will be interesting if the MEU lands on the Iranian coast, which is what I suspect it would take to make the Strait safe for passage of the larger warships.
It's possible the US could seize Kharg Island already with helicopter borne forces. It doesn't solve the problem of the Strait, though. It's not clear why the US isn't arresting Iranian tankers as they leave the Straits, though - haven't they read their Mahan?
What a vile human being Pete Hegseth is.

[jimbob]

I think '5000' is the number of personnel in the whole ARG, while the 'Marine Expeditionary Unit' is about 2200. It will be interesting if the MEU lands on the Iranian coast, which is what I suspect it would take to make the Strait safe for passage of the larger warships.
It's possible the US could seize Kharg Island already with helicopter borne forces. It doesn't solve the problem of the Strait, though. It's not clear why the US isn't arresting Iranian tankers as they leave the Straits, though - haven't they read their Mahan?
What a vile human being Pete Hegseth is.

I guess that would make sense. Of course they would have to stay to keep the strait open and that could be a resource sink.

And of course, geometry would be against them, because it's something like a 140⁰ segment of a curve with the inside being in Oman, and the outside in Iran, so that's quite a large area to keep clear from smallish drone launchers

[bjn]

Apparently Trump now wants the UK and other countries to keep the Straights of Hormuz open while last week he said they didn't need anyone's help as the US had almost won his deeply stupid war. No idea why he wants our help when he thought that the UK and other NATO troops were apparently cowards in the Afghan debacle.

I don't UK service folk to die to clean up his mess, nor do I want us to pay for it.

https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bs ... zmg2ybic2c